September started with an ominous bang for this country. Boko Haram insurgents over ran a town called Bama, in Borno State. As usual, the administration is trying to put a brave face on this alarming development, forgetting that this is the Information Technology Age, with diverse news sources available to the citizenry.
There has been a spate of denials about the loss of Bama. The official line is that insurgents suffered heavy casualties and the assault was successfully countered by the military. Yet the fact that in the wake of the attack a curfew was suddenly imposed on Maiduguri, gives a strong indication that something is gravely amiss. Even the contradictory explanations are enough indication that the situation in Bama is not the way it is being presented to the public.
To highlight the gravity of what is unfolding, it is important to state that Bama is approximately 40 kilometres away from Maiduguri, the Borno State capital. Once known as the “Home of Peace”, it had a population of over one million before the recent influx of persons displaced from surrounding areas by the insurgents.
In the same way that Boko Haram evolved from a bunch of religious zealots into a rag-tag guerilla group, and eventually a deadly force of insurgents, so has its overall strategy metamorphosed at an alarming rate. Currently it appears to be at that phase where controlling territory has become paramount on its agenda. Hitherto the group seemed content with violent raids on villages, and attacks against the military in classic guerrilla style. The emphasis at this point seems to be one of occupation with Damboa, Gwoza and other towns in Borno being taken over. The same tactical acquisition is playing out in Yobe and Adamawa States.
Should Bama be fully under the control of Boko Haram, it would mean that the only major towns in Borno left under government control are Biu, Kukawa and Maiduguri. One glance at a map of Nigeria would vividly reveal what is happening to the country’s territorial integrity within the North East.
It does appear that the one thing government has done consistently since the emergence of Boko Haram’s terror campaign, is to grossly underestimate the insurgency and the major objective of the insurgents. Boko Haram has never hidden its desire to establish its own brand of Shari’a in the country. No doubt it sounds like some hallucination that a bunch of zealots cum rag-tag insurgents would think it is possible to take over a country the size of Nigeria.
But the people behind Boko Haram are not mere wishful thinkers. Over and over again they have demonstrated that they are intelligent, skillful and operating from a carefully plotted template. The image they publicly project of being illiterate serves as an effective façade for underestimation. Behind that deceptive mask though, the story is totally different.
The state they seek to create is a throwback to the pre-colonial period when a different regime of territorial configurations existed, especially in that region. It is no coincidence that Boko Haram has its tentacles in Cameroon, Niger and Chad. A bit of history should be exquisitely handy at this point.
There was once a Kanem-Borno Empire covering territory in today’s Chad and Nigeria, and extending into parts of modern Southern Libya, Eastern Niger and Northern Cameroon. As a polity, its dominance lasted between the 11th and 18th centuries. While theories of its origin are diverse, its interplay with Islam is more specific especially during the reign of Idris Aloma.
Borno’s decline, and the emergence of the Sokoto Caliphate, made it a marginalised state. The exclusion soon led to the adoption of the “more violent Mahdism as it spread westward from Sudanic Africa. A strand of Islam that encouraged militancy and opposition to authority, this ‘menace’ school of thought preached that the Mahdi (‘saviour’) would reappear in times of difficulty. Muslims would be rid of oppression, the unfaithful killed and Islam would triumph over evil, with equity, peace and riches for all to ensure.” The message has continued to reverberate with sections of the populace from that time, through Colonial rule and to the present dispensation.
It is a historical context that strongly influenced those behind Boko Haram. The creation of a new constituency that evokes a seeming Gold Age is a major driving force. It is no mistake that the established key players in the conglomeration called Boko Haram (The Jamaa’atu Ahlis-Sunnah Lid-Da’wati Wal-Jihaad of Abubakar Shekau, Jamaa’atu Ahlis-Sunnah Ahlis-Sunnah Lid-Da’wati Wal-Jihaad of Sheikh Bukar Al-Barnawi, Ansorul-Muslimiina Fii Bilaadis-Sudan led by Abu Usamah Al-Ansori, and Haraktul-Muhajiriina wal-Mujahidiin led by Khalid Al-Barnawi) are a representation of the parts of the ancient Kanem-Borno Empire. The recruitment of fighters has focused on the same areas namely Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Nigeria.
Chad’s long history of instability has ensured that there is a ready pool of experienced battle-hardened conscripts. The underdevelopment in Niger, parts of Nigeria and Cameroon, also offer fertile recruitment grounds. The recruitment drive in both Niger and Cameroon is only coming to light because of the increased cross-border attacks.
Boko Haram’s sophistication became evident on March 14, this year when it attacked the Giwa Military Barracks in Maiduguri. It had given an indication of its new capabilities in an earlier attack on the Maiduguri-based Composite Group Air Force base on December, 2013.
Bewildered, like most Nigerians by the audacity of both attacks and posting the visuals on the internet, Abiodun Ladepo took the pains to analyse both video recordings. He raised questions which he demanded President Jonathan should address to his National Security Team. He observed thus: “The Giwa Barracks attack is the single most humiliating incident for the previously dreaded Nigerian Army. I will forever be befuddled by the fact that for 24 whole minutes, the terrorists did not receive in-coming, defensive fire from the army. In this video (www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgP6aYbtwto), you will not see the terrorists scampering for cover to avoid incoming grenades or heavy machine gun fire. It is as if they are attacking a compound occupied by enfeebled Octogenarians. It is a monumental embarrassment for our army.”
The embarrassment has continued with orchestrated denials, including the “tactical manouevre” justification of the Ngala-Gambarou incident which security analyst Bridget Johnson described as a historical first for Nigeria.
Despite the official position about Bama, an independent source has described in graphic military language how the insurgents used artillery and armoured vehicles (including a BTR and several Otokar APCs and ARVs) to launch a dawn attack, eventually forcing over 300 soldiers to break through insurgent lines and retreat to Maiduguri. Most of the equipment are Nigerian Army supplies which the insurgents had taken from armouries that had been over run in previous attacks.
Whether Bama has fallen or not, there is an imminent danger which can no longer be masked with spin. What the insurgents have done in the past few months is a tactical encirclement of Maiduguri. An exercise that has included sacking communities to stock up supplies, blowing up bridges and even disrupting electricity supply to Maiduguri. Steadily a noose of siege is being created around the city.
There is a method to the seeming madness of the insurgents. The fall of Maiduguri will not only witness a horrendous carnage, but will mark the beginning of something ominous for the country. One Intelligence source even claims that the insurgents’ code-name for the current phase of their attack is Al-Bidayah or The Beginning.
What is playing out is eerily reminiscent of how ISIS gained territory and found a platform to expand its horrendous quest. Learning from the setback of Al-Shabaab and the gains of ISIS, Boko Haram may succeed in sucking Nigeria into a “Forever War”, with the insurgents having the capabilities, including looting and kidnapping, to survive for a long time as the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) is doing in Uganda.
Even if Bama keeps changing hands, Gwoza provides an ideal spot for gaining foothold in Cameroon, Chad and Niger. It is no coincidence that Shekau made that chilling declaration some weeks ago in Gwoza, which has provided a suitable training complex for the insurgents. Something needs to done, drastically and urgently, before Maiduguri falls. [myad]
