With the election of governor coming up tomorrow in Kogi state, the aggressive campaigns embarked upon by the major parties in the race have exposed the strengths and weakness of the parties in each of the zones across the state.
Although 22 political parties have been recognized by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to participate in the battle for the Lord Lugard House as the Government House is called, only four parties have so far shown considerable desire to be taken seriously for the election.
They are the PDP, whose candidate is the incumbent, Captain Idris Wada from Dekina Local government Area in the Eastern Senatorial zone of the state; Abubakar Audu of the APC, from Ofu LGA also in the Eastern flank of the state while the candidate of the Labour Party, Mr. Philip Omeiza Salawu is from Ihima in Okehi LGA and his kinsman Enesie Emmanuel Ozigi of the PPA, is an Okene man from the Central flank of the state.
The western zone of the state seems not to be interested in the governorship race but comfortable with the deputy governorship slot zoned to the area by the two major parties. The PDP has the incumbent Deputy Governor, Architect Yomi Awoniyi while Hon Abiodun Faleke of the APC is working hard to snatch the position. However, the center of election gravity is going to be fiercely fought on the soil of the Eastern zone, where the two dominant parties – PDP and APC had picked their governorship candidates.
Wada hails from Odu in Dekina LGA, one of three traditional Divisions in the Kogi East. Analysts believe that since the defeat of Audu of the then ANNP in 2003, PDP has never lost governorship elections in these local government areas from the zone considered and referred to as traditional base of the PDP.
These council areas known as home of the PDP include Omala, Ibaji, Bassa, Idah, Igalamela and Dekina, not forgetting Ankpa LGA which was ceded to the PDP with the transmutation of a political juggernaut and strategist, chief Ibrahim Linco Ocheje, from the ANPP to the PDP which was believed to have given victories to the party in both the 2007 and the 2011 governorship elections.
But the fortune seems to be waning with the sacking of Ocheje by the leadership of the party, who at the time of the rise of PDP in Ankpa was the zonal vice chairman, East and had to defect to the APC for the electoral defeat of the PDP in the two House of Assembly seats of AnKpa LGA, House of Representatives seat for Ankpa/Olamaboro/Omala Federal Constituency and senatorial ticket for the zone.
Hitherto, the PDP enjoyed comfortable support from the aforementioned LGAs before the Buhari presidential and National Assembly tsunamis that altered the party’s traditional support base, losing the lone senatorial slot and two House of Representatives seats but struggled to retain Idah Federal Constituency by the whiskers.
Observers believed that the hullabaloo generated towards the conduct of the PDP governorship primary election in which the major stakeholders were divided in their support for Wada and Jibrin Isah Echocho had caused a major crack in the party, paving the ways for the APC to infiltrate the traditional support base of the PDP in the nine local government areas of the zone.
However, with the return of the Baba Kogi and political generalissimo, Alhaji Ibrahim Idris to the forefront of Wada’s campaign train, the peoples’ confidence was believed to have started to incline across the districts and the state at large, with possible marginal win in the zone on the November 21, 2015 gubernatorial poll.
Meanwhile, Audu and his APC, although with different names in the previous elections had enjoyed unalloyed support of Olamaboro LGA, his mother’s origin; Ofu his country home and Ankpa, which has considerable residents of the Ogugu clan.
According to commentators on Igala politics said, as far as Audu’s governorship election is concerned, it would always attracts sizeable supporters from the “Ogugwu clan” scattered across the five out of the nine LGAs that made up the zone. They noted that in a free and fair election involving Audu and his party, he always commands some degree of followership from Ankpa, Dekina, Ofu, Olamaboro and Igalamela which has pockets of Ogugu settlers.
Audu, who has contested all the governorship elections held in the state since the state was created 24 years ago, hopes to reclaim the office he vacated 12 years ago with the help of his party at the centre. He seems to believe that with the whirlwind of the Buhari election, the state could re-enact the feat to actualise his stunted aspiration, committing his energy and resources with the determination to prosecute the rescue mantra even as he has concentrated his struggle on the Eastern zone, which commands superior population above the other zones.
Meanwhile, the belligerent parties have had their best moments in the western zone before Buhari’s election altered the political equation. Although the PDP has also had considerable influence on the zone since 1999, the presidential and National Assembly elections had wreaked havoc on the party as Dino Melaye, who once represented Yagba Federal Constituency on the platform of the PDP, used the APC to humble former Senator Smart Adeyemi out of the senate, sources believe might join forces with the deputy governorship candidate of the party, Faleke to cause some upset in the election.
Experts reckon that with the deputy governorship position of the parties occupied by the two hostile federal constituencies of Okunland, it might attract sympathy votes to the son of the soil.
But with Adeyemi throwing punches at Faleke from Ijumu Federal Constituency and the reinforcement through an uppercut from the PDP deputy standard bearer, Awoniniyi, Olusola Akonmode, General David Jemibewon and T. J. Faniyi, could midwife victory for the PDP.
For Lokoja/kotonkarfe Federal Constituency, the combined forces of the Director-General Wada/Awoniyi Campaign Organisation, Senator Tunde Ogbeha and the former Secretary to the State Government, Alhaji Musa Ahmadu, who had oiled their political machinery to extinguish the flames from Buba Jibrin and another former House of Assembly member, Alhaji Salifu Akawu Seidu of the APC, could do the magic.
The second epicentre of the Ides of November 21 is the central Senatorial district, which is reputed with the highest turnout of votes during elections, but which may experience voters’ drought this time around as none of their politician is fielded by the two dominant parties (PDP and APC).
But with the consolatory entry into the race of a former deputy governor, Philip Salau of the Labour Party (LP) and the Peoples Progressive Alliance (PPA), Mr. Enesi Ozigi might change the impending voters’ apathy, observers believe.
Philip Salau from Ihima district of Okehi LGA, analysts contend might have been drafted into the race by one of the dominant parties to whittle down the rising influence of the opponent.
A politician from the area, Itopa Salifu noted that the former deputy governor has taken a wrong step to waste his money on a venture he knew might not yield. Salifu was quick to add that the candidate of the Labour Party might have been contracted to play a spoiler’s role, saying the antecedents of Salau as deputy governor is a snag to his ambition.
Although the relatively unknown candidate of the PPA, Enesi Ozigi from Okene and from one of the vociferous and populous clans in the area has to contend with the political maestros of the moment, Hon. Yahaya Karaku, supported by the chairman of the LGA Hon. Ahmed Ogembe and other notable PDP politicians, his hope of having a good support base may be forlorn.
The lackluster support from Senator Mohammed Ohiare, foremost APC governorship aspirant, Alhaji Yahaya Bello and former Senator Salihu Ohize for Audu’s candidature and the inability of President Buhari to attend the recent APC rally at Okene for the presentation of flag to Audu may spell doom on the votes from the zone.
In addition, the resilience of the kingmakers, who have largely remained intact since the PDP took over power in the state in 2003, could also be an albatross for Audu’s governorship dream. In all, the speculations would be laid to a final rest from tomorrow when the elections would have been conducted and a winner announced. Until then, all eyes on Kogi. [myad]