A car bomb, allegedly set off by a militant offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), denoted outside an Izmir courthouse, killing at least two. The terror attack is just one more in a string of attacks demonstrating the collapse of Turkey’s counterterrorism capacity in the wake of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political purges.
Erdogan loves a crisis. He called the abortive July 15 coup “a gift from God.” He has since ushered in and extended emergency laws and purged tens of thousands of political enemies.
He is also allergic to criticism. Journalists either blame Erdogan’s enemy du jour or end up in prison. Since the terror campaign began, Erdogan has arrested more journalists than terrorists.
For months, there has been a looming showdown between Erdogan and Turkey’s military. Dogu Perincek, a Maoist-turned-ultranationalist, has a powerbase among senior officers. Erdogan has apparently tried to erode Perincek’s influence by returning purged Islamists to power all the while building his own personal militia under the guise of SADAT, a private security company training paramilitaries whose head, Gen. Adnan Tanriverdi, Erdogan appointed as his military counsel.
Erdogan has worked with Perincek to purge their mutual enemies: liberals, Kurds, and followers of Fethullah Gülen. Where the two have clashed most prominently is over the new constitution which Erdogan wants to confirm his dictatorial powers.
The question is whether the two might temporarily bury the hatchet by striking a deal to turn Turkey more permanently toward Russia. Perincek has long denigrated NATO and urged closer ties between Ankara and Moscow. Erdogan’s recent embrace of Russia (“Close incirik” is trending right now on Turkish twitter and prominent Turkish papers blame the United States for recent attacks) play into Russia’s hands.
If Erdogan continues his battle against Perincek, Turkey is heading for another coup, political assassinations, or civil war. If he calls a truce with Perincek, then there is no impediment for Erdogan to declare martial law and to bring the full force of the military to bear against anyone who would stand in Erdogan’s way. Martial law, however, is no magic bullet:
- Erdogan is like Putin. Both leaders may believe they can use the other and out maneuver the other. But Putin is smarter than Erdogan. The Turkish leader should ask: Does he really think he can outmaneuver Putin? Could Putin use Perincek against Erdogan by either supporting a coup or assassinating the Turkish leader or his close aides?
- Perincek has declared his opposition to the new constitution. Would he cooperate with martial law even if it meant Erdogan continued to push the new pact through parliament?
- Erdogan retains the support of half the country, many of whom is conservative Muslims and embrace political Islam. Having incited religious hatred and intolerance for more than a decade, Erdogan will not likely be able to rein in those constituents even if their demands become politically inexpedient.
- Martial law and a turn toward Russia and China will not revive Turkey’s economy; they will only cause it to sink further.
- Erdogan has pulled the trigger on the Kurds. He has not only walked away from peace talks, but also arrested democratically elected Kurdish leaders. Many Kurdish cities today resemble Aleppo; only the crackdown on media both foreign and domestic has tempered outrage. Martial law will not resolve that problem. It will only transform Turkey’s psychological partition into physical division.
Russia is not known for bringing either freedom or prosperity to its clients—and that is exactly how Putin views allies.
So what can Turkey do to recover? Emergency laws are addictive, but they will no more bring stability to Turkey than they did to Syria. Nor is press censorship wise. Avoiding accountability seldom improves quality of governance. Military force will exacerbate rather than resolve societal polarization. The United States can do without Turkey, and NATO let alone the European Union would be better off without the Turkey shaped by Erdogan. If Erdogan wants to dance with Putin, Turks will suffer. Russia is not known for bringing either freedom or prosperity to its clients—and that is exactly how Putin views allies.
Martial law will push Turkey further into the morass. Simply put, there is no substitute for rule-of-law and democracy, the very ideals to which Erdogan has now turned his back. [myad]
