August 2026 Attained World’s Hottest Month; Temperatures Crossed 1.5°C – European Centre

The world experienced one of the most extreme months in the modern climate record in August 2026, as global temperatures climbed 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, while ocean temperatures reached unprecedented highs amid a rapidly strengthening El Niño.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said August was the joint-warmest month ever recorded globally, tying with July 2023.
The development has renewed concerns over the accelerating impacts of climate change, particularly as extreme heat, drought, wildfires and disruptions to ecosystems and water systems become increasingly widespread.
According to C3S, August 2026 recorded a global average surface air temperature of 16.96°C, which was 0.85°C above the 1991–2020 average. It surpassed the previous joint record for August set in 2023 and 2024.
More significantly, the month was 1.65°C warmer than the estimated 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, making it the first month since November 2025 in which global temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C threshold.
The August figure was less than 0.01°C above July 2023, making the two months effectively tied for the highest global monthly temperature in the ERA5 record, which extends back to 1940.
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF, described the development as a “remarkable month” in the global climate record.
She said the combination of temperatures above 1.5°C, record sea surface temperatures and an exceptionally warm summer in western Europe demonstrated how climate change was driving extreme conditions in both the atmosphere and oceans.
C3S reported that the average sea surface temperature across the extra-polar oceans, between 60°S and 60°N, reached 21.07°C in August — the highest August value on record and the joint-highest monthly value for any month, matching the record set in March 2024.
On August 24 and 25, daily average sea surface temperatures reached a new record of 21.11°C, exceeding the previous record of 21.09°C recorded in March 2024.
C3S attributed the exceptionally high ocean temperatures partly to rapidly developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, although widespread unusually warm waters in other ocean basins also contributed to the record.
The agency said sea surface temperatures in large parts of the tropical Pacific continued to reach record levels, with El Niño conditions expected to intensify into the coming months and potentially become one of the strongest such events on record.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. While it is a natural phenomenon, its effects are occurring against a backdrop of long-term human-induced global warming caused primarily by the accumulation of greenhouse gases from fossil-fuel use and other activities.
The strengthening El Niño is particularly significant for countries whose agriculture, water resources, energy systems and economies are highly sensitive to changes in rainfall and temperature.
In Nigeria, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) said in its August 2026 seasonal climate update that observations showed the onset of a strong El Niño event, which was expected to influence global climate patterns during the August-to-October period.
NiMet’s 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction had already warned that temperatures were likely to be above normal across most parts of Nigeria, while rainfall patterns could vary considerably across the country. The agency’s seasonal forecasts are intended to support decision-making in agriculture, disaster management, water resources and other climate-sensitive sectors.
For Nigeria and other African countries, experts say such climate signals underline the importance of strengthening early-warning systems, climate information services and preparedness measures, particularly for farming communities and vulnerable populations.
The extreme global temperatures were reflected dramatically in Europe.
C3S said western Europe experienced its warmest summer on record during June–August 2026, surpassing the previous record set in 2003.
The average summer temperature across the western European region reached 21.69°C, which was 2.54°C above the 1991–2020 average.
The region experienced a succession of unusually early, persistent and intense heatwaves beginning in May, while widespread dryness affected western, central and eastern Europe.
Severe drought conditions were reported in France, the United Kingdom, Hungary, Romania and Serbia, while major rivers including the Rhine, Danube, Southern Bug and Dnieper recorded exceptionally low flows.
C3S said the combination of heat and dryness created conditions favourable to wildfires and placed additional pressure on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems and communities.
The climate extremes also contributed to worsening wildfire conditions in parts of the world.
According to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, conditions associated with the strengthening El Niño favoured the intensification of seasonal wildfires in Indonesia, with smoke from the fires affecting atmospheric conditions beyond the immediate region.
The development is another illustration of how climate drivers can interact with local weather and environmental conditions to amplify risks.
A warning beyond the 1.5°C threshold
Climate scientists stress that a single month above 1.5°C should not be interpreted as the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature limit having been permanently breached.
The Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal concerns long-term global warming, generally assessed over much longer periods rather than an individual month.
Nevertheless, the August record is significant because it illustrates the increasingly warm baseline from which individual weather and climate extremes are occurring.
C3S reported that the average global temperature for the 12 months from September 2025 to August 2026 was 1.48°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial level. It also said January–August 2026 currently ranks as the second-warmest such period on record, behind 2024.
The agency further noted that forecasts indicate the 2026 El Niño could strengthen beyond the 2023 event, raising the potential for exceptionally high global temperatures during the remaining months of the year.
For countries such as Nigeria, where millions depend on climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, fisheries and livestock, the latest global temperature figures reinforce the need to translate climate forecasts into practical early action.
The challenge, therefore, is no longer simply documenting temperature records, but preparing communities, governments and businesses for the increasingly severe consequences of a warming planet.

…ADF members






2027: Shettima And The Northern Equation, By Abdulkarim Abdulmalik
There is a dangerous assumption in Nigerian political discourse: that the North is a single electoral constituency waiting to be captured by whoever produces a Northern running mate. The reality is far more complicated. Northern voters are diverse, politically conscious and increasingly concerned about the tangible consequences of government policies. They want security. They want food on the table. They want jobs, functioning schools, roads, electricity and opportunities for their children.
This is precisely why Kashim Shettima matters to the All Progressives Congress (APC). His greatest political asset is not that he can magically deliver Northern Nigeria to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Rather, it is that he has the experience and political capacity to help the APC compete credibly in a region where the election could be decided by issues rather than sentiment.
Shettima’s political journey gives him an unusual combination of local authenticity and national exposure. He understands Borno. He understands the North-East. But after serving as governor, senator and vice-president, he also understands Abuja.
This combination is politically useful. He can interpret Northern concerns to the Federal Government while explaining Federal Government policies to Northern citizens. In political terms, he is a two-way bridge. And this may be his greatest value in 2027.
Shettima’s governorship of Borno occurred during a period of profound insecurity. That experience could have left him defined solely by the crisis. Instead, it became part of his political education. He learnt the language of emergency governance, reconstruction, security coordination and community resilience.
Those lessons are relevant to today’s Northern challenges. The APC can therefore present Shettima not merely as someone who comes from the North, but as someone who has governed through some of the North’s most difficult moments. That is a considerably stronger political proposition.
The greatest challenge to the APC in 2027 may not be opposition rhetoric. It may be household economics. Voters judge government through lived experience.
A policy that looks impressive in Abuja but produces no discernible improvement in the life of a farmer, trader or young graduate will struggle to generate electoral enthusiasm.
Shettima’s opportunity is to help close that communication gap. He can explain reforms. But he can also insist that reforms must eventually produce results.
This is important because effective political communication is not propaganda. It is the ability to connect policy with people’s reality.
This, if the APC can demonstrate concrete improvements in agriculture, infrastructure, employment and security, Shettima will be well positioned to communicate those gains in the North.
The North-East gives Shettima a natural starting point. He is one of its most recognisable national political figures.
The public mobilisation of North-Eastern political leaders around the Tinubu-Shettima ticket provides evidence of a potentially useful political foundation. But the real opportunity is to move from elite consensus to grassroots confidence.
The APC must ask a simple question in every Northern community: What has changed?
Where there is progress, it should be documented. Where problems remain, they should be acknowledged. Where programmes are incomplete, timelines should be communicated.
Shettima can help make that conversation credible because he understands the region’s political and social vocabulary.
Shettima’s challenge will be to expand his influence beyond his home region. The North-West has a different political history and a different electoral culture. The North-Central has its own complex combination of ethnic, religious, agricultural and security concerns.
He cannot approach these regions with a one-size-fits-all strategy. However, his national political experience gives him the capacity to adapt.
The Vice President can engage each region on its own terms while maintaining a common national message. That is precisely what successful coalition politics requires.
The Muslim-Muslim ticket will remain part of the political conversation. But Shettima possesses a potential answer that is more powerful than political argument: conduct.
If the Vice President continues to promote national unity, religious tolerance and inclusive governance, he can help the APC demonstrate that the ticket is not a declaration of religious supremacy. The presidency belongs constitutionally to all Nigerians.
That principle should be visible in governance. And Shettima is in a particularly strong position to articulate it.
Northern Nigeria has one of the country’s youngest populations. This makes young voters critical to the 2027 election.
The APC cannot depend entirely on traditional political structures. Young Nigerians want opportunities, digital connectivity, education, entrepreneurship and meaningful participation.
Shettima’s relatively contemporary communication style and national visibility give him an opportunity to engage this demographic. But again, engagement must go beyond speeches. The party must present measurable opportunities.
Where policy produces results, Shettima can become one of its strongest communicators.
No presidential election is won by an individual. It is won through thousands of political relationships operating across wards, local governments and states.
Shettima’s years in government have given him access to an extensive network of governors, legislators, traditional rulers, party leaders, business figures and community stakeholders. That network is an asset.
Used intelligently, it can help the APC identify local grievances before they become political crises. It can also help the presidency communicate directly with communities.
The strongest argument for Shettima is therefore not emotional. It is strategic.
He gives Tinubu a running mate who understands the North but has spent enough time at the centre to understand the whole country.
He has governed. He has legislated. He has negotiated. He has communicated. He has survived political adversity. And he has demonstrated loyalty to the presidential partnership. These qualities will matter in an election likely to be fiercely contested.
Against this backdrop, Shettima could help transform the party’s Northern strategy from “Vote for us because our vice-president is from here” to “Vote for us because we understand your concerns and have a credible record and plan for addressing them.”
That may sound a harder argument, but it is also a more durable one. This could help the APC make it convincingly and thus, underscoring Shettima’s political contribution to Tinubu-Shettima’s 2027 re-election.
– Abdulkarim Abdulmalik is an Abuja-based Journalist. Email: nowmalik@gmail.com