A major fire outbreak has burnt to ashes, the private residence of the Minister of State for the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Dr. Mariya Mahmoud. Information reaching us at Greenbarge Reporters online newspaper and hardcopy magazine said that the outbreak, whose cause is yet to be ascertained, occured today, February 25 in the Minister’s Asokoro residence. Firefighters reportedly failed to respond to the incident early enough, thereby worsening the situation. No casualties reported. Though no official statement has been released, but Media Aide to the minister, Austine Elemue, confirmed the incident but did not give details.
Two wanted armed bandit commanders, whose names were given as Baldo and Baban Yara, together with scores of their foot soldiers, have been gunned down by Nigerian soldiers in what has been described as “deadly battle.” The warlords were said to be behind the coordination of movement and exchange of kidnapped victims within camps in the Zamfara/Katsina axis. A defence intelligence source confirmed that the terrorists were killed yesterday, February 25, along the Zamfara/Katsina axis. “Our troops engaged the terrorists at Aliero West axis and succeeded in killing the two bandit kingpins and 28 of their foot soldiers. “Lately, our troops have intensified their aggressive operation in the North West and are pounding terrorists heavily. “We want to rid the region of criminal elements so that farmers can carry out their agricultural activities without delay.” A source hinted that the operation was swift as no terrorists sighted were spared by the soldiers. “The military worked on the intelligence in ambushing and eliminating the warlords and their followers mostly riding on motorcycles. “If this operation is sustained, our farmers will surely return to the farms while, hopefully, we will have a peaceful Ramadan period of fasting, which is just around the corner.” Source: PRNigeria
Former Nigeria’s Vice President has recommended the economic reform methods of President Javier Milei of Argentina, who was sworn into office on 10 December 2023, to President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria. In a statement today, February 25, Atiku recalled that the Argentina’s leader inherited a worse economic condition than Nigeria’s. “But what he did to return his country to a place where investors are ‘starting to believe’ should serve as a lesson to Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu. “Nigeria is where we are today simply because of what Tinubu has done or did not do. “His shifting the blame on the opposition and, even ridiculously, his predecessor is needless and myopic. Market forces don’t play politics. They respond to your actions and inactions. “President Milei’s major campaign promise was to reposition the Argentine economy after years of slow growth, high debt levels, triple-digit inflation (160% when he took over the Presidency in December 2023) and 40% poverty rate.” Atiku said that the first task the President of Argentina did was to begin implementing measures to achieve greater macroeconomic stability and promote higher global competitiveness. “He came into the office with a comprehensive stabilization plan, which seeks to implement far-reaching measures within the context of a market-oriented economy. “He started off cutting government expenditure by cutting the size of government and wastages; blocked stealing of government funds, and attracted Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) through concessions, tax holidays, and improved ease of doing business. “President Milei flies regular business class for all his travels and does not offer the presidential fleet of Argentina for his son’s birthday. “Likewise, there is no settlement for his hangers-on and political allies through unwieldy and burdensome appointments to public offices. “Argentina’s Milei did not build the largest government like Tinubu did at a time when our economy was and still on its knees. “The examples set by President Milei are the requirement of leadership in a time when the economy has begun to fail the expectations of the people. “The reforms so far implemented by the Tinubu administration are ad hoc and hurriedly put together without proper review. Ours is unlike Argentina’s Milei, who is sequencing his reforms. “President Milei anticipates the after-reform shocks and admits that things will be tough for the people. But he is fully prepared for the aftershocks and has in place mitigating pills. “He walks the talk. He makes sacrifices himself by giving up perks of office. “It is not business-as-usual for the presidency while the people are called upon to make sacrifices. “Argentina runs a lean government by reducing the number of ministries, privatizing nearly 40 state-owned enterprises, and reducing wasteful spending.” Atiku, who contested the 2023 presidential election under the umbrella of People’s Democratic Party (PDP), regretted that Nigeria’s President Tinubu has been doing the direct opposite by increasing the number of ministers and ministries and spending enormous resources renovating houses for himself, his deputy and the first lady. “That is nothing short of Nero playing fiddle while Rome is on fire! “Worse still, Tinubu has refused to roll up his sleeves and do the work that he signed up for. Instead, he and his team are preoccupied with behaving like Napoleon and Squealer, characters in the satire book Animal Farm, who made it a state policy scapegoating Snowball (the opposition) for their own failures arising from their ill-advised policies. “I am attracted to the reforms in Argentina because Javier Milei’s stabilization plan bears a similar emblem with my Recover Nigeria Plan. “It is a plan that I am more than willing to disclose details of its workings with the current government in order to take Nigeria out of the depth of hunger and anger that we find ourselves in. “The plan includes strategic steps we must take to recover the economy and make it stronger, dynamic, resilient, and competitive. “We had outlined plans to relax the fiscal constraints facing us to include: • Improving Spending Efficiency and Blocking Leakages • Saving money through: a. A review of fiscal support for non-performing government enterprises and the privatization of those that can not sustain themselves. b. Steps to improve spending efficiency through a gradual reduction in government recurrent expenditures, ensuring that those expenditures reflect higher levels of service delivery. Over the medium term, recurrent expenditures should not exceed 45% of the budget. c. A review of government procurement processes to ensure high levels of transparency, competitiveness, and value-for-money and eliminate all leakages.” Atiku stressed that unless and until there are clear-cut policies and pathway to economic rejuvenation predicated on a leadership led sacrifice, there will be discontentment, especially among the youths, which may find expression in protests and for which it will be silly to continue to blame the opposition for. He said that he took a keen interest in the issue of Argentina because that country and Nigeria closed the last quarter of the year 2023 on a similar path of economic downturn. “In the case of Nigeria, a new government was installed at or about the middle of 2023, for Argentina, the new government came on board in December. “Both leaders inherited a disoriented economy, but both applied different measures to recovery.”
“In my mind and heart, that which is hurtful yet ineffective serves no good purpose and should be abandoned. “…the sanctions that we contemplated might help lead our brothers to the negotiating table have become a harsh stumbling block.” These were the verdict of Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, who doubles as Chairman of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), when he spoke today, February 24, at the Extra-ordinary Summit of the body in Abuja, Nigeria’s nation’s federal capital. President Tinubu said that everything which the leadership of ECOWAS did was in hopes of persuading the coup leaders in those countries that there existed a better path, “a path that would lead to genuine improvement of their people’s welfare through democratic good governance. “And this was a path each of our nations had solemnly agreed with one another pursuant to formal regional treaty and protocol.” He recalled that ECOWAS was established for the unassailable objective of improving the lives of the people of this region through fraternal cooperation among all member states. He added that the body was cemented on the strong foundation and apt conviction that, united as one, members can be the true masters of their destiny. The President stressed that ECOWAS took the steps it did based on the regional ideals of security, social stability; democratic governance, political freedom, broad-based prosperity, and sustainable economic development through fair opportunity for each and every one in West Africa. He insisted that neither hatred nor hidden motive influenced the steps taken and that there was never any intention to douse or undermine the legitimate political aspirations of any member state or to advance the interests of any outside party. President Tinubu drew attention of the members to the approach of the holy month of Ramadan and of Lent, saying: “whether you pray in the mosque or in the church, this represents a time for compassion, hope, and harmony. It is a time that we must not only seek God but also a closer relationship with brother and neighbour. “In the Spirit of the holy month and of the Lenten period, and with hearts bestirred by goodwill towards all our people, let us extend a hand as brothers and friends to those in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea. “What I suggest in real and practical terms is that we, my colleagues and fellow heads of state in ECOWAS, indefinitely suspend economic sanctions against Niger, Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso and against the leadership of the military authorities in those nations.” President Tinubu asked ECOWAS to facilitate the unfettered flow of foodstuffs, medicines and other humanitarian items to the people of these nations, especially to the most vulnerable, adding that for Nigeria, this will also mean the prompt resumption of export of electric power to Niger. “In this vein, suspension of sanctions is an important but initial step. What we seek is more than the breaking of the diplomatic logjam. We must use this very moment when things seem tense and progress unavailing, to forge greater cooperation within our community. “We not only reach out to our brothers. Today, we say unto them — let us begin to work more earnestly together for the economic development of our people and towards confronting those modern challenges that respect no borders or boundaries. Challenges ranging from climate change to violent extremism to illegal pilfering of our precious natural resources require that we join together in progress or we fail separately. “As leaders of ECOWAS, we have accepted the honour and duty to draft the history of the region and its people during our tenure in office. We have also accepted the honour and duty to reach out to our brothers, letting them know this regional home belongs to us all. I shall do my utmost in this regard. I humbly beseech that you do the same. “For these reasons, we must suspend sanctions and return to brotherly dialogue. I call on the leadership in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, and Niger to embrace the hand extended.”
The immediate past Chairman of Ungogo Local Government area of Kano State, Engineer Abdullahi Garba Ramat has called for the probe of himself and the governors of the 36 States over the huge income they have been getting as a result of the oil subsidy removal In a statement, the local government boss, who voluntarily resigned early this month, February 5, said that the problem is not the oil subsidy removal but how the gains from it is being pocketed by governors thereby denying poor Nigerians the benefit of the removal. “When I was a local government chairman, I received #200m per month before subsidy removal, but after the removal, I received #950m from federal Government the first month, through what they call joint account. “This amount continues monthly. We saved huge amount of money which we didn’t even know what to do with. “Commoners (masses) are in hardship but we used the money for widows marriage programs which we sponsored (through L.G allocation). I believe Kano people are not aware that it is local Government that sponsored foreign scholarship 100%. Then construction of bridge (Dan Agundi flyover) without the approval of Local Government chairmen. “Till the time I resigned, I have never been approved (to spend) at least #200m to work for the benefit of my people (Ungogo L.G). Out of the billions of naira we received, the state government swallowed it all.” Engineer Abdullahi Ramat said however that the State Governor, Abba Yusuf is trying to give the chances but that “the cabals blocked the chances. I believe Abba will make a good Governor but must stop trying to please everyone. This is mistake. “Likewise, all other 36 state governments plus FCT received the multiples of their allocations in addition to the #5 billions given by Mr. President for palliative but all are in vain. “Nothing goes to the poor, only hardship. “Only few state governments used some of it to ease the lives of the masses. “Whenever people talk we blame (President Bola) Tinubu. It is a lie. The causes are the states (governors). “The biggest problem is that even the savings are being looted by the few individuals. “We are suppose to be investigated by EFCC, ICPC and NFIU. We are talking with one of the NFIU directors, he opened his mouth listening, out of surprise from what I told him. “I told him that I have some evidences and official documents. He said they’ll invite us officially. “The Local Government is closed to the common men but the (governors) swallow the joint account. “As a local government Chairman, you wouldn’t know what is happening. “It is not good to hear. “This life is so selfish. Federal Government is doing her best. “If the allocation wasn’t enough before, it is too much now (i.e, it is enough). I swear. “I’m advising H.E Abba Kabir Yusuf to turn deaf ear to those cabals and give chances to the L.G. Chairmen, although I was not given a chance due to some reasons.” Engineer Abdullahi Ramat announced his resignation as Ungogo local government chairman on February 5, via a post on his verified Facebook wall. He said that he handed over the affairs of the council to the Vice Chairman of the Council. The post reads: “Alhamdullah, I have today handed over to my Vice Chairman. I have of course done my best —with hundreds of projects to my name, bagged many awards within and beyond borders, including the Best Chairman award by the State House of Assembly. We move…” It was gathered that Engineer Abdullahi Ramat’s resignation came at the time the tenure of the local government chairmen in the state is expected to end this February.
This time last year the dollar rate was stable at 730 to $1. It was the same at Binance P2P. USDT was stable and pegged at 730 to $1. So what changed between last year and this year that caused a 60% Naira depreciation? There are two answers. 1. PresidentTinubu’s miscalculation. 2. Greedy Speculators Lets explore these two factors. Last June, this present government made a brilliant and audacious move. They were bold enough to unify the official FX rate and the parallel market by floating the naira. A very bold thing to do, and also the right thing to do too, but they failed with this attempt because no country in the world floats its currency without a backup Plan for volatility. Thus when the speculators who are in business to make money saw the flaw in what the Government’s Plan, they leveraged on that to strike. That is why, from June till now the Naira has been on a free fall with no fundamental or excessive demand to back it’s depreciation. *EXPLANATION* The same people who bought the dollar last year are the ones who are still buying it this year. This time last year, NNPC did not remit dollars to CBN, and Still not remitting to date. Nigeria was not invaded by aliens demanding dollars to justify this depreciation of our currency. The CBN’s situation hasn’t worsened since December, rather it has improved. The dollar supply hasn’t worsened since December, rather it has improved. Capital importation hasn’t worsened since December, rather it has improved. In just two weeks, Nigeria attracted over $1.8 billion in inflow from capital importation. Bearing in mind that last year, we had supply issues as banks were not selling dollars, which you could only get from the black market, but still, the naira was a stable. This Researcher urgently needed $10,000 last year. He bought from his dollar plug, Adamu, who sold to him at 730 as Zenith Bank did not have a dollar to sell. The same Zenith bank does not have dollar to sell as of today but dollar has magically gone haywire since that time. Which leads to the second leg of this Piece. *Binance speculators* Prior to 2020, the P2P market on Binance was not mainstream. Every Tom, D*ck, and Harry could buy USDT at Binance at the official rate using their naira card. The official rate was the country’s exchange rate, which was what Binance was selling its USDT at at the time. Then Emefiele struck in February 2020 by banning Crypto. The P2P market went underground and became mainstream, and the channel where you go to buy your USDT. The P2P market was largely insignificant prior to that attention because it was a small market in the forex ecosystem until last June. In 2020, the country witnessed the largest conversion of young Nigerians into Crypto because we had a bull run that year. Many people were demanding USDT at a level we have not seen to date. In all these demands in 2020, the naira rate was stable @ 450 to $1. It is quite strange and ironical that when there is no demand for USDT, the dollar rate at Binance is going up every hour for no reason and no fundamental reason to back this increment. South Africa has a bigger P2P market on Binance than Nigeria. South Africa has a daily volume of $30–50 million, but the South African currency, the rand, is stable and does not depreciate the way the Naira has been doing since last year. Nigeria has a daily turnover of just $1 million on Binance P2P. It was the same volume last year. Instead of stability since there is no excessive demand for USDT, what we have seen is price manipulation by large traders in that segment who trade large amounts of dollars. Yesterday, on Binance all day, witnessed a mind-blowing discovery. These guys on P2P wake up to start manipulating the naira price with no backing demand. The price went from 1700 to 1850 in less than 3 hours. A thorough check, showed no excessive demand for USDT from the buyers to warrant this depreciation. Rather, what was noticed were 4-5 traders on Binance playing a game among themselves, moving funds around, and then deliberately driving up price. Just like that. As they were doing their price manipulation on Binance, the unofficial market, which is the BDC sellers on the street, were monitoring what they were doing to fix their own rate. When they were done with this manipulation, they withdraw their gain for the day and went God knows where to enjoy their profit for the day. The USDT/Naira pair on Binance is the official black market rate where all dealers pick their pricing model from. Both the media, FX speculators, influencers, and traders resort to Binance rates. This Researcher bought $5,000 from his plug Adamu. Before he gave the price, he checked Binance for the rate and then gave him his best price. This speculative practice is not sustainable. It is hurting the larger economy and the greater population of our citizens who are hurting from the madness going on in Binance. It is more hurtful because the true value of the naira is not 1,900, it isn’t even 1,500. The fair value is between 650 and 800 to $1. *EXPLANATION* The fair value of a country’s currency is calculated by two models. 1.The total export of the previous year. 2. The total amount of money in circulation Nigeria exported goods worth $70 billion last year. The total money in circulation was 3.2 trillion naira as of December last year. When you juxtapose these two, it gives you a sense of where our currency should be, which is between 650-800 but today, we are buying the dollar at 1,900 to $1 because of the slow market realisation of this government. *The way forward* It is not too late for this government to admit that their floating gamble has failed and then wake up to take charge before things get worse than this. *PROCEDURE* 1) Admit they failed in floating the naira without a backup in case of volatility. 2) Introduce a managed float by pegging the exchange rate of the currency to a price, within the range of 650–800, and then do all they can to defend it. This will run the speculators out of town. 3) Right now there’s no coordination between Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance responsible for the fiscal side, and Cardso, the CBN Governor, driving the monetary policies. This needs to change quickly. These speculators on Binance are making a fortune speculating on our currency, Speculation of anything is actually a lucrative business. George Soros once made $1 billion in a day, speculating, betting against the British pounds in 1992. Thus speculating on Binance is giving these guys insane money that trading Crypto won’t give them, and this is why they won’t stop anytime soon. They won’t stop till they drive the price of the dollar to 3,000 to $1. Will the Government wait to be crippled by them? We expect to see Wale Edun and Cardoso to halt these mad people before they (the Speculators in Binance), who are in minority, push our economy to Lebanon and Venezuela because of their Greed. This is where they are heading. Are we going to allow Binance speculations destroy us? The ball is in the court of the Government to act quickly.
The Nigerian military authority has declared those who have been calling for military coup in Nigeria as evils. The Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, on behalf of the military, declared: “anybody calling for anything other than democracy is evil and does not wish us well.” He stressed that Nigeria is better under democracy than any other system of governance. The General, who spoke during his operational visit and inauguration of facilities at Headquarters 6 Division of the Nigeria Army, in Port Harcourt yesterday, February 22, emphasised that the country’s democracy is achieved through great efforts. According to him, insinuations from some quarters for the military intervention in the current democratic system portray lack of”patriotism. “People making such calls for a military takeover do not love Nigeria. “We want to make it clear that the Armed Forces of Nigeria is here to protect democracy. “We all want democracy; we do better during democracy, and so, the armed forces will continue to support democracy.” He insisted that those who are advocating a coup d’état are adversaries, who do not have the country’s best interests at heart. “We can see that with democracy a lot of things are happening in Nigeria. Yes, we are going through a trying period, but in life, nothing is 100 per cent. “Everybody (country) went through trying periods, and it is what you do with them (that matters).” The army chief said that the government has initiated actionable measures to address the array of challenges facing Nigerians. He emphasized that instead of calling for a military takeover, all citizens should rally behind the government to resolve the present circumstances. “It is when you go through difficulties, and you come out of it better, that you will truly appreciate what it is to build a nation. “The country is going through its trying period, but I can assure Nigerians that the situation will get better. “All we need is to unite and work together to defeat enemies of the government and country, those who do not want us to succeed.” General Musa pledged the military’s loyalty to the government,adding the armed forces would preserve peace and order in the country.
Senate President, Senator Godswill Akpabio has made it clear that the 10th Senate which he presides over, will stop at nothing to effect electoral reforms of the country. Senator Akpabio, who spoke today, February 20, when he received a delegation of the European Union (EU) in Nigeria, led by Ambassador Samuela Isopi, stressed that the Senate is well disposed to the issue of cooperation with the EU on the Electoral Reforms. “The 10th Senate is very committed to ensuring that we tinker with the Electoral Act to bring it in line with today’s reality.” The Senate President called for more collaboration between Nigeria and the European Union to deepen democracy in the west African country. “For the European Union, it will be a great privilege in the 10th Senate to relate closely on almost all matters with your parliament. I want to congratulate you that the EU continue to remain strong, vibrant and stabled despite BREXIT. “As soon as your parliament is inaugurated in July, the election comes up in June, we will be very glad for you to create an enabling environment for us to have interparliamentary exchange, to learn from one another and also deepen democracy in Nigeria. “I always like to say that one out of four black persons in the world, one of them must be a Nigerian. So if you deepen democracy in Nigeria and the conditions are favourable here, that means you have assisted the global black race.” He commended EU for the study it sponsored on “2023 Mapping of European Union companies in Nigeria.” By that study, Akpabio said, the EU had taken time to know the contributions of the various companies from the European Union to Nigeria, creating over 50,000 jobs. “I request that you do more to assist us because we have a lot of youthful population and unemployment is one of the major issues in the country that if tackled, could result in reducing insecurity in the nation. “For us in Nigeria, out of the 27 countries that make up the European Union, about 19 of them are physically present in Nigeria at Ambassadorial level. It shows the strong ties that this country has with the European Union,” Akpabio said. Responding on the issue of women participation in politics, the Senate President expressed his concerns about the presence of very few women in parliament. He said that in as much as the men wanted more women in politics, the women needed more sensitisation to realise the need to cast votes for their fellow women as well during election period. “What we have done is to make sure that in all delegations outside Nigeria, we include them because they are very few. We want the world to know that we have women in our parliament. At the same time we want to give them exposure to attract other women to take part in politics.” According to the Senate President, all the women in the 10th Senate are members of the newly constituted Constitution Review Committee and also nominated as members of the next ECOWAS Parliament just as a way to encourage them. “You also mentioned the fact that EU is a strong advocate of democracy around the world, not just in West Africa but in many places. At the moment, there are a few countries in West Africa that are under military dictatorship. Freedom of movement, freedom of speech totally curtailed. “So we will be glad if the European Union can work towards a return to democracy in those countries particularly those our neighbouring countries of Mali, Niger and also Burkina Faso as soon as possible,” Akpabio said. Earlier, the leader of the delegation, Ambassador Samuela Isopi said that democratic government is one of EU key areas of collaboration in Nigeria. “The European Union has supported Nigerian democracy since the return to civilian rule in 1999 and we have been doing that consistently through technical and financial support to critical stakeholders. “The EU is Nigeria’s largest trading partner, accounting for more than over one-third of Nigeria’s trade with the rest of the world. “The EU is also top investor in Nigeria. Recently, we have mapped out the presence of EU private investment in Nigeria and we find out that over 220 companies are present in Nigeria that creates jobs for Nigerians.”
An Ekiti State High Court, sitting in Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, has sent ex Bursar of Federal Polytechnic, Ado-Ekiti, Elijah Oladapo, to prison without an option of fine for demanding and receiving N500,000 kickback on the contract awarded by the institution. Delivering the judgment on the case that had dragged since 2021, the trial judge, Justice A. L. Ogunmoye sentenced Oladapo to two years imprisonment on counts 8 to 9 without an option of fine and has since been sent to the correctional centre to serve his time. The judge also sentenced him to five years imprisonment for counts 4 to 7 with an option of fine of N1.2 million. The convict was first arraigned in court by the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) in 2021 alongside the former Rector of the same Institution, Mrs. Theresa Taiwo Akande, for allegedly receiving over N500,000 as kickbacks from a contractor handling construction projects in the school. In a nine-count charge filed before the court, ICPC averred that the actions of the officers contravened Sections 8(1) (a) 19 and 20 of the Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Act, 2000. The accused persons had pleaded not guilty when the charges were read to them, which set the tone for the long trial. During the trial, the court heard about how the convict had, in 2015, abused his office by demanding and receiving kickbacks from a contractor handling the construction and furnishing of lecture theatres and offices in the school. In his ruling, Justice Ogunmoye discharged and acquitted the first defendant, Mrs. Akande. He found Oladapo guilty of the charges.
Following threat of disconnection of electricity supply, the presidency has resolved to quickly settle the Abuja Electric Distribution Company (AEDC) the sum of over N342 million standing as its outstanding debt to the company. This is coming even as the presidency denied the N923 million which AEDC claimed is the outstanding debt against it. In a statement today, February 20, the special adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga said: “contrary to the AEDC’s initial claim of N923 million debt in paid advertorial in newspapers, the State House outstanding bill is N342, 352, 217.46, according to a letter by the management of AEDC to the State House Permanent Secretary dated February 14, 2024. “Having reconciled the position to the satisfaction of both parties, the Chief of Staff to the President, Rt Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila, has given assurance that the debt will be paid to AEDC before the end of this week.” Onanuga said that the Chief of Staff also urged other MDAs to reconcile their accounts with AEDC and pay their electricity bills.
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FG Must Act Fast Before Binance Traders Push N3,000 To $1, By Chukwudi Iwuchukwu
This time last year the dollar rate was stable at 730 to $1. It was the same at Binance P2P.
USDT was stable and pegged at 730 to $1.
So what changed between last year and this year that caused a 60% Naira depreciation?
There are two answers.
1. PresidentTinubu’s miscalculation.
2. Greedy Speculators
Lets explore these two factors.
Last June, this present government made a brilliant and audacious move. They were bold enough to unify the official FX rate and the parallel market by floating the naira. A very bold thing to do, and also the right thing to do too, but they failed with this attempt because no country in the world floats its currency without a backup Plan for volatility. Thus when the speculators who are in business to make money saw the flaw in what the Government’s Plan, they leveraged on that to strike. That is why, from June till now the Naira has been on a free fall with no fundamental or excessive demand to back it’s depreciation.
*EXPLANATION*
The same people who bought the dollar last year are the ones who are still buying it this year.
This time last year, NNPC did not remit dollars to CBN, and
Still not remitting to date.
Nigeria was not invaded by aliens demanding dollars to justify this depreciation of our currency.
The CBN’s situation hasn’t worsened since December, rather it has improved.
The dollar supply hasn’t worsened since December, rather it has improved.
Capital importation hasn’t worsened since December, rather it has improved.
In just two weeks, Nigeria attracted over $1.8 billion in inflow from capital importation. Bearing in mind that last year, we had supply issues as banks were not selling dollars, which you could only get from the black market, but still, the naira was a stable.
This Researcher urgently needed $10,000 last year.
He bought from his dollar plug, Adamu, who sold to him at 730 as Zenith Bank did not have a dollar to sell.
The same Zenith bank does not have dollar to sell as of today but dollar has magically gone haywire since that time.
Which leads to the second leg of this Piece.
*Binance speculators*
Prior to 2020, the P2P market on Binance was not mainstream.
Every Tom, D*ck, and Harry could buy USDT at Binance at the official rate using their naira card.
The official rate was the country’s exchange rate, which was what Binance was selling its USDT at at the time.
Then Emefiele struck in February 2020 by banning Crypto.
The P2P market went underground and became mainstream, and the channel where you go to buy your USDT.
The P2P market was largely insignificant prior to that attention because it was a small market in the forex ecosystem until last June.
In 2020, the country witnessed the largest conversion of young Nigerians into Crypto because we had a bull run that year.
Many people were demanding USDT at a level we have not seen to date.
In all these demands in 2020, the naira rate was stable @ 450 to $1.
It is quite strange and ironical that when there is no demand for USDT, the dollar rate at Binance is going up every hour for no reason and no fundamental reason to back this increment.
South Africa has a bigger P2P market on Binance than Nigeria.
South Africa has a daily volume of $30–50 million, but the South African currency, the rand, is stable and does not depreciate the way the Naira has been doing since last year.
Nigeria has a daily turnover of just $1 million on Binance P2P.
It was the same volume last year.
Instead of stability since there is no excessive demand for USDT, what we have seen is price manipulation by large traders in that segment who trade large amounts of dollars.
Yesterday, on Binance all day, witnessed a mind-blowing discovery.
These guys on P2P wake up to start manipulating the naira price with no backing demand.
The price went from 1700 to 1850 in less than 3 hours.
A thorough check, showed no excessive demand for USDT from the buyers to warrant this depreciation. Rather, what was noticed were 4-5 traders on Binance playing a game among themselves, moving funds around, and then deliberately driving up price.
Just like that.
As they were doing their price manipulation on Binance, the unofficial market, which is the BDC sellers on the street, were monitoring what they were doing to fix their own rate. When they were done with this manipulation, they withdraw their gain for the day and went God knows where to enjoy their profit for the day.
The USDT/Naira pair on Binance is the official black market rate where all dealers pick their pricing model from.
Both the media, FX speculators, influencers, and traders resort to Binance rates.
This Researcher bought $5,000 from his plug Adamu. Before he gave the price, he checked Binance for the rate and then gave him his best price.
This speculative practice is not sustainable.
It is hurting the larger economy and the greater population of our citizens who are hurting from the madness going on in Binance.
It is more hurtful because the true value of the naira is not 1,900, it isn’t even 1,500. The fair value is between 650 and 800 to $1.
*EXPLANATION*
The fair value of a country’s currency is calculated by two models.
1.The total export of the previous year.
2. The total amount of money in circulation
Nigeria exported goods worth $70 billion last year.
The total money in circulation was 3.2 trillion naira as of December last year.
When you juxtapose these two, it gives you a sense of where our currency should be, which is between 650-800 but today, we are buying the dollar at 1,900 to $1 because of the slow market realisation of this government.
*The way forward*
It is not too late for this government to admit that their floating gamble has failed and then wake up to take charge before things get worse than this.
*PROCEDURE*
1) Admit they failed in floating the naira without a backup in case of volatility.
2) Introduce a managed float by pegging the exchange rate of the currency to a price, within the range of 650–800, and then do all they can to defend it. This will run the speculators out of town.
3) Right now there’s no coordination between Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance responsible for the fiscal side, and Cardso, the CBN Governor, driving the monetary policies.
This needs to change quickly.
These speculators on Binance are making a fortune speculating on our currency, Speculation of anything is actually a lucrative business.
George Soros once made $1 billion in a day, speculating, betting against the British pounds in 1992.
Thus speculating on Binance is giving these guys insane money that trading Crypto won’t give them, and this is why they won’t stop anytime soon. They won’t stop till they drive the price of the dollar to 3,000 to $1.
Will the Government wait to be crippled by them?
We expect to see Wale Edun and Cardoso to halt these mad people before they (the Speculators in Binance), who are in minority, push our economy to Lebanon and Venezuela because of their Greed.
This is where they are heading. Are we going to allow Binance speculations destroy us?
The ball is in the court of the Government to act quickly.