I do not want to believe that in a country of close to 250 million people, I am the only one who think that there is a gathering of ominous dark clouds over our dear country, beginning from the North. I cannot afford that foolish and lazy thought even if I wanted to dream so, because it is that type of thinking that brought us to this sorry pass. Yes. Not long ago, we had a leader who believed he knew more than everybody and was better than everybody. And surprisingly, many northerners believed he was the only upright person in this populous country, better than even their fathers.
The shout all over the nation about hunger is something that can confuse any government or leader, because it is a fact that hungry people will become angry, and an angry nation is a step away from anarchy.
But one may be forgiven to conclude that the citizens, especially in the North, are being remotely pushed to behave that way. A respectable journalist from Bauchi sent me a report he wanted us to publish. The report was that “labourers in Bauchi were digging up anthills to collect stashed grains there.”
I asked him for pictures and he sent me about four pictures of a well-dressed, healthy-looking man wearing a fez cap and jackboots, shovelling an anthill. According to the report, despite the ongoing construction of roads and houses in Bauchi and surrounding states, this labourer had to go steal food from ants!
When you critically look at Nigeria, or the North, and its situation, what is happening is not excusable. Take instances where warehouses or trailer loads of food were attacked and stripped of everything: Is it hunger where you see a purportedly hungry man hurrying away with two or three bags of rice on his shoulders and returning for more? Or able-bodied youths, both male and female, fighting their way through the madness to grab as much of the loot as they can, taking them somewhere for safekeeping and returning for more?
If the looting of foodstuff from government warehouses and trailers in the name of hunger continues unabated, unchecked, we should brace up for the next phase. The next phase would be breaking into houses of “big people” to loot foodstuffs. And because the looting is not motivated by hunger, we will see some looters carrying televisions, furniture, cookers, refrigerators, gas cylinders, etc. Do not forget that during one of such “hunger” protests and looting, even a signboard was uprooted and stolen. Some people just love to steal – hungry or not – and opportunities are now being offered to them.
Alhaji Aminu Dantata told a story of how his father’s wealth, then transported on the backs of donkeys, got missing when the donkeys ran off while his aides accompanying the wealth were asleep. A public announcement was made, and six weeks later they were found without a single coin lost. And the lack then was greater than what it is now.
And when you look at the looters, hardly do you see signs of responsibility in them; they most likely will take the loot to the markets to sell. They are the types you see springing up from nowhere selling fuel by the roadsides whenever there is a scarcity.
The problem with instigating such people either to cause discomfort to the government or even to derail it is that they are Frankenstein Monsters that would end up as no good to anyone.
But these monsters may not attack the houses of the “big men” first because of many factors, among which are the elitist and urban nature of their environments, and thus enhanced security. But most importantly, because the middle class, which has largely thinned out, is a buffer between them and the monsters.
For decades now, some people have been denying Nigeria a middle class. It is as if they are saying from zero to 100, nothing in-between. Is that possible? Even at the speed of light, one has to go through those steps. In between the have-nots and the bourgeoisie, there are those hanging there either through hauling themselves by their bootstraps or because of some connections. They are not quite down there and yet not up there.
If you can afford a house, rent a flat for your family, pay your children’s school fees, and take care of your basic needs and those of your dependents, then you are not at the bottom of the rung, though you are not with them at the top. You are, therefore, somewhere in the middle. In that category, you could be lower-middle-class, middle-middle-class or upper-middle-class. They have to pass you before they can reach the “big man.” The rampagers will easily and quickly get the middle-class man because the distance between them is very small.
Therefore, people like us will be the first casualties. While we are just a little above them by the grace of God, they see us as their enemies, not knowing our daily struggles for survival. To them, we are part of the enemy because we do not live in a “face-me-I-face-you” type of compound; we own cars, but they do not know we are auto mechanics’ best friends, and our children perhaps go to private schools where we practically bleed from every vein to pay their extortionate fees.
But after us, surely, they will come for the “big men”. And they will get a lot of them because not all can escape abroad with their families. And even if they flee with their immediate families, they must leave behind more family members than those taken.
We must not continue to let the ominous dark clouds gather. Something urgent has to be done.
I have lost hope in the Nigeria Labour Congress to come to the rescue. I do not know what has happened, but since their top man was beaten blue and black sometime back in Owerri, their thinking has been somehow. I do not know if he had seen the right doctor, but imagine them asking for a basic salary of ₦794,000 a month!
The issue is the money for that is simply not there, but even if it is, paying such an amount to less than two per cent of the population is untenable because inflation would spiral out of control, afflicting the entire population. In Nigeria, unlike other countries, when there is a ten per cent salary increase, the prices of goods and services rise by at least twenty per cent, rubbishing the increase.
Moreover, in a country where the private sector that employs the bulk of the people is gasping for breath, where do they get the extra cash to pay such an amount as salary? The private sector will simply go under, and the people roaming the streets without jobs to even “manage” their lives will exponentially increase. Have we ever thought of the security implications even as we are currently being overwhelmed by security challenges?
Anyone genuinely interested in the welfare of workers, and indeed Nigerians, should do well to proffer solutions that would boost our economy and strengthen our currency and not suggestions that would bastardise our economy and drive the naira’s value further down. And that is what salary increase portends now.
Methinks Labour would join the federal and state governments in making our youths self-dependent and employable by teaching them trade skills. As a trade union with many affiliates, when last did Labour speak about the moribund textile industries, for instance? Resuscitating them would provide hundreds of thousands of direct and indirect jobs. And cotton production would be revamped where another huge number of nationals would be gainfully employed.
The government must reduce the cost of governance and the unimaginable take-home pay of political leaders and redirect the excess towards production. We must become a productive nation that eats, drives and wears what it produces. This is the only way to think if we want the dark clouds to clear.
But, is it a problem of the North only? No, if left unchecked, the looming dark clouds will cover the entire nation.

Hassan Gimba is the Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of Neptune Prime.

“In my Saturday Tribune column, I show how Tinubu’s Jan. 11, 2012 article on the effects of subsidy removal describes with almost mathematical precision what Nigeria is going through now.”–Prof.kperogi

Tinubu’s Accurate 12-Year-Old Prediction on Subsidy Removal Effects, By Farooq A. Farooq Kperogi
Twitter:@farooqkperogi

On January 11, 2012, Bola Ahmed Tinubu published a sober, thoughtful, deeply insightful, and penetratingly foresightful article titled “Removal of Oil Subsidy: President Jonathan Breaks Social Contract With the People” that uncannily prefigured the untoward consequences of petrol subsidy removal that Nigerians are currently grappling with.

The article has trended on social media in the last couple of weeks, but I had never taken the trouble to read it until multiple people who I regard highly sent it to me in what seemed like a coordinated torrent of forwards.

But after reading the 4,000-plus-word article and finding out that it predicted the current petrol-subsidy-removal mass excruciation Nigeria is suffering with almost mathematical exactitude, I became suspicious of its authenticity. It was too good to be true.

My incredulity compelled me to make inquiries, which led me to realize that the Nigerian Tribune had actually fact-checked the genuineness of the article on May 31, 2023. It not only found that it wasn’t fake but also scanned and uploaded a printed copy of the article published in The Nation, Tinubu’s paper.

I encourage everyone to read it. In the article, Tinubu derided the 2012 removal of petrol subsidies as the “Jonathan tax,” and the following paragraphs are particularly noteworthy for the mysterious precision of their prescience:

“Government claims the subsidy removal will create jobs…. The stronger truth is that it will destroy more jobs than it creates. For every job it creates in the capital intensive petroleum sector, it will terminate several jobs in the rest of the labor intensive economy.

“Subsidy removal will increase costs across the board. However, salaries will not increase. This means demand for goods will lessen as will sales volumes and overall economic activity. The removal will have a recessionary impact on the economy as a whole. While some will benefit from the removal, most will experience setback.

“What is doubtless is that the Jonathan tax will increase the price of petrol, transportation and most consumer items. With fuel prices increasing twofold or more, transportation costs will roughly double. Prices of food staples will increase between 25-50 percent….

“Most people’s incomes are low and stagnant. They have no way to augment revenue and little room to lower expenses for they know no luxuries; they are already tapped out. The only alternative they have is to fend as best they can, knowing they must somehow again subtract something from their already bare existence.

“There will be less food, less medicine, and less school across the land. More children will cry in hunger and more parents will cry at their children’s despair…. Poor and middle class consumers will spend the same amount to buy much less. The volume of economic activity will drop like a stone tossed from a high building. This means real levels of demand will sink.

“The middle class to which our small businessmen belong will find their profit margins squeezed because they will face higher costs and reduced sales volumes. These small firms employ vast numbers of Nigerians. They will be hard pressed to maintain current employment levels given the higher costs and lower revenues they will face.

“Because the middle class businessman will be pinched, those who depend on the businessmen for employment will be heavily pressed. States that earn significant revenue from internally generated funds will find their positions damaged. Internally generated revenue will decline because of the pressure on general economic activity. The Jonathan tax will push Nigeria toward an inflation-recession combination punch worse than the one that has Europe reeling.

“This tax has doomed Nigeria to extra hardship for years to come while the promised benefits of deregulation will never be substantially realized. People will starve and families crumble while federal officials praise themselves for ‘saving money.’ The purported savings amount to nothing more than an accounting entry on the government ledger board. They bear no indication of the real state of the economy or of the great harm done the people by this miserly step.”

Like I have done for years, Tinubu also fulminated against “European conservatives” whose economic prescriptions are at variance “with the needs of the Nigerian populace.” He even said something that is eerily close to what I wrote in a previous column. “There has been no nation on the face of the planet that has developed or achieved long-term prosperity by devotion to conservative, ultra-free market economic ideas that dominate this government,” he wrote.

“If no nation has grown using these conservative ideas,” he asked, why are we stuck with them? I have an answer, and it’s three-fold: sadly familiar Nigerian elite self-love, xenophilic obeisance to meanspirited racist wretches at the IMF/World Bank, and a visceral disdain and blithe unconcern for ordinary Nigerians.

Like Tinubu pointed out in 2012, the removal of petrol subsidies in 2023 merely took money from the so-called oil subsidy cabal and put it directly into the pockets of politicians without hurting the bottom line of the subsidy cabal. The cabal simply pushed the extra cost of importing petrol to consumers.

In the aftermath of the removal of subsidies, allocations to the three tiers of government rose by 29.05% in just six months. By the end of 2023, governments shared N15.1 trillion, which represented an increase of N3.4 trillion from 2022.

Note that, according to the Punch of September 22, 2023, N3 trillion was budgeted for petrol subsidies from June 2022 to June 2023 (although it was N1.57 trillion in 2021 and N1.27 trillion from January to May 2022, indicating obvious fraud). In other words, the money that would have been used to keep the pump price of petrol at less than N200 per liter was simply shared between the presidency, governors, ministers, and the rest.

State governors now receive several folds more money than their normal monthly allocations without a corresponding increase in their expenditures. Because they have way more naira than they have use for (of course, they don’t care about the masses), they convert the extra naira into dollars, which contributes to the relentless depreciation of the naira, according to the BusinessDay of February 13.

In other words, to put it even more crudely, the masses and the economy benefited more from the corruption of the subsidy cabal than from what has replaced it since May 2023. But, as I pointed out earlier, the subsidy cabal isn’t hurt in the least by this change. Apart from pushing the cost of importation to consumers, they are now receiving subsidies through the backdoor to keep the price of petrol from climbing to over N1,000 a liter, which the IMF is now instructing Tinubu to stop.

The only losers are ordinary Nigerians, small businesses, the informal economy, and the manufacturing sector. After Tinubu said subsidies were gone in May 2023, the GDP of the transportation sector contracted by 50.64% in the second quarter of 2023 and by 35% in the third quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The road transport sector is the most reliable barometer to measure the health of commerce and of the informal economy in Nigeria. Petrol subsidy removal is killing it. A November 28, 2023, BusinessDay headline succinctly captures this: “Subsidy removal pushes transport industry into recession.”

My job as an inveterate opponent of subsidy withdrawal is made easier by the knowledge that Tinubu knows the truth. He knows for a fact that petrol subsidies are not a waste, especially if the corruption in the administration of subsidies is addressed. He knows that it’s an investment in the people and in the economy.

Petrol doesn’t just power the transportation sector, it’s also the main source of electricity generation for industries, small businesses, and the vast majority of our people. Given that Nigeria has the worst electricity generation record in West Africa (and possibly in Africa), it’s easy to see why a drastic rise in the cost of petrol activates an across-the-board cost-push inflation and deepens the misery index in the country.

Tinubu knows this but has chosen to care more for the validation of the sadistic bastards at the IMF and the World Bank than the comfort and wellbeing of his people.

There’s no doubt that it’s the IMF and its evil twin, the World Bank, that are ruling Nigeria. Tinubu’s government is just a proxy. For example, just two days after the IMF told Tinubu he must remove electricity subsidies (I had no clue such a thing existed given the unreliable electricity in Nigeria) Minister of Power Adebayo Adelabu announced that the government would withdraw electricity subsidies.

The same IMF has also instructed that the surreptitious subsidies the Tinubu administration is paying to stop petrol prices from getting to—or even rising above— N1,000 a liter must be stopped. Get ready for another bumpy ride, Nigerians.

Until half the country drops dead from starvation, the IMF, which is the real government in Nigeria, won’t rest.

I can guarantee you that.

May God save Nigeria!!!