2015: Nigeria’s Headaches Beyond Jonathan, Buhari, By Yusuf Ozi-Usman

Of course, with the assumption, rightly and or wrongly that the two main combatants: Presidential candidate of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), President Goodluck Jonathan and that for All Progressives Congress (APC), General Muhammadu Buhari, in the February 2015 general elections in Nigeria, hold the ace to peaceful or otherwise of the elections, they were brought, along with other stakeholders, to sign what was termed Abuja Peace Accord on Wednesday, January 14.
And when Jonathan and Buhari, in the process of signing the Peace Accord, embraced each other publicly, nearly all Nigerians heaved a sigh of relief believing that the trouble looming in the air was all over. Of course, in both reality and by implication, the signing of Peace Accord by the two supposed combatants should have signified a big break-away from the war-song that was gradually turning the country into frightening entity.
Indeed, before Wednesday, many Nigerians had started moving their households to their homes: from the North to the South and from other parts of the country to other parts of the country in fear of the looming Armageddon.
The fear, amongst the citizenry, of disaster occurring before, during and after the February elections, was founded on the behavioural pattern of the political campaign arrow-heads, i.e. Presidential candidates of the two main political parties in the country.
But, despite the Wednesday Peace Accord Treaty amongst the stakeholders, the war songs, the bad-mouthed statements and campaigns of calumny are still ongoing amongst the die-hard supporters of the big masquerades.
What was the content of the Peace Accord which the Presidential candidates signed?
They pledged among others, to refrain from “campaigns that will involve religious sentiments, ethnic or tribal profiling, both by ourselves and all agents acting in our name.
“To refrain from making or causing to make in our names or that of our parties any public statement, pronouncement, declaration or speeches that have the capacity to incite any form of violence before, during and after the elections.
“To forcefully and publicly speak out against provocative utterances and oppose all acts of electoral violence whether perpetuated by our supporters and, or opponents.
“To commit ourselves and political parties to the monitoring of the adherence of this Accord if necessary, by a national peace committee made up of respected statesmen and women, traditional and religious leaders.’’
As a matter of fact, before the signing of the Abuja Peace Accord, the major headaches of Nigeria were, on the side of General Buhari, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, Governor Babatunde Fashola of Lagos state, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu, Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of Kano state and governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo state and other foot soldiers. And on the side of President Jonathan were Dr. Doyin Okupe, Barrister Olisa Metuh, Femi Fani-Kayode, Alhaji Mujahid Asari Dokubo, Governor Godswill Akpabio of Akwa Ibom state, Chief Edwin Clark among other surrogates.
But less than 24 hours after the signing of the Peace Accord, while substantial number of such fire-spitting supporters of the two combatants subsided, even if for a while, the governor of Akwa Ibom state, Godswill Akpabio refused to down-tool. He went to town with a threat that the only way Nigeria can remain in peace and unity is to re-elect President Jonathan in the February 14 election. His Delta state counterpart, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, at a different occasion, also made it clear that Niger Delta people would not negotiate the second term election of President Jonathan.
As if that was not enough, the ex-Niger Delta war lord, Asari Dokubo also went on the air, in an interview on Channels TV, openly insulting not only General Buhari but all the Northerners. Not only that, a few days later, the same Dokubo accused President Jonathan of paying a visit to former President Olusegun Obasanjo whom he described as (Jonathan’s) enemy that should have been arrested and detained. He also accused President Jonathan of putting his enemies, whom he called “Gambari” from the Northern part of the country in the security system to fight Boko Haram. He even said: “I hate Nigeria.” (An average normal human being would do anything to destroy anything he or she hates. Do we take it then that Asari Dokubo is in this category?)
Chief Edwin Clark, yesterday (Friday), cast doubt over the workability of the Peace Accord even as he added his own salt to the wound which the Peace Accord sought to heel.
What has been missing in all the noises about the cry of war, war and war that have been coming from our brothers from Niger Delta in favour of their brother, President Jonathan, is the inability of the side of President Jonathan to effect the part of the Accord that talked about “restraining supporters” from drumming war song.
From the beginning, it had never been the two principal actors that have been responsible for a heated political environment with provocative statements, and if they were, they could, and have easily refrained from such acts. It is the supporters, with some kind of ulterior motives that have been the main headaches.
Obviously, if the supporters of President Jonathan have refused, as they have done, to respect the content and spirit of the Peace Accord by throwing insults at the other side, what would happen is a reversion to the unruly situation that prevailed before the Peace Accord.
There is something the leaders of the Niger Delta region that are threatening fire and brimstone have forgotten: that Jonathan became President with combined votes of people across Nigeria. And that Nigerians from all walks of life cast such votes freely for him in 2011 without anybody using force. And that in 2015, in line with the principle of Democracy, it is and would be under the same condition that Jonathan should be returned to power.
Threatening that the heaven will fall if Nigerians decide this time, to vote against him for reasons best known to them, is taking them (Nigerians) for a ride or saying that they are fools.
The Niger Delta leaders are simply saying now that Nigerians should, in February 2015, resort to another form of strange Democracy or electoral process, where they would cast their votes based on fear, simply to avoid war or trouble.
And, who determines where the pendulum would swing in war?
Muscle flexing, using war-like threats to cajole the electorate in a democratic practice, apart from amounting to veiled rigging, is also a sign of weakness. It amounts to what late Fela Anikulapo Kuti described as “Shakara.”
You may know the level of your strength, as Asari Dokubo confessed that the Niger Delta Militants still have sophisticated guns and weapons in their possession (to execute his imagined war with Northern “Gambari,”) but you don’t know the strength of the group you are charging at.
It would therefore profit all of us, Nigerians, wherever we are, to respect one anothers’ strength and weakness, because, we all have the two sides.
In any case, whatever happened to the principle of persuasion in an ideal election, away from eye-balls that are growing into ultra-red and rolling in their sockets while the chests are beating at hypertensive level as bodies are quivering!

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