In this election cycle, party elders have shown their dissatisfaction with Ted Cruz, questioning his eligibility for the presidency of the United States; other party leaders have coalesced under a semi organization as the Stop Trump Movement due to the utterances of Mr. Donald Trump, who they believe does not represent GOP positions on the affairs of the nation and the world.
The harder GOP leadership had tried to steer the ship to the center as the grassroots have veered to the right.
For a perspective on how far things have gone awry, remember President Reagan in the city of Berlin standing tall and pointing to the Berlin Wall and yelling to President Gorbachev of Russia “tear down this wall” and compare it with Mr. Trump yelling that he would build up a high wall to stop Mexicans from entering US and that Mexicans would pay for the wall.
Both the one who would tear down a wall and the one who build up another wall were hailed. How hath the mighty fallen?
The above narrative represents the background on which GOP strategies ought to be revisited. It will require divine intervention for GOP to win this 2016 elections. GOP ought to refocus its attention to 2020 elections and try to snap the presidency from the Democrats then.
To say that the Republican Party will lose 2016 election in April of 2016, seven months before the context, is a bold or crazy prediction. But let nobody say that they were not told.
It is wise advice for GOP to refocus on 2020 now.
GOP is wrong because there is no Republican Party existing now. There is a collection of three groups pretending to be a party called GOP.
One of the groups is what is popularly known as The Tea Party. This group is an aggregation of confused individuals without political ideology; without political experience; and without any organization.
They have on their roster, names like Sarah Palin, Donald trump, Ted Cruz and others. But they have probably the largest grass roots following of the other splinter groups. This group has no tolerance for Blacks, Latinos, Muslims, immigrants, so-called illegal aliens, etc.
Another group would be the Traditional Republican Party. The members of this group are primarily the current leadership of House and Senate, the living party officials such as the past presidents, majority leaders of the senate, speakers of the House and most of the elder statesmen and women. They have clout but do not have the numbers among followers. The strength of this unit is that they have political ideology that binds them together, have had government experience, and some kind of organization. They can summon business leaders for help and can appeal to some independents. Their weakness is some consider them too central or in some cases as liberal hence their name as the liberal wing of the Republican Party which is a contradiction in terms for they were once considered as fire brands.
The last wing is those who are “none of the above.” There are elements of the first group they like but not all; there are also elements of the second group they like but not all; and there are elements of the Democratic Party ideologies they like. They are like bats neither day birds nor night birds; neither land animal nor birds. These people are often referred to as Republicans in Name Only. Though their numbers are small, they usually make the difference in close elections, especially in primaries.
Most importantly. they are concentrated in a few Midwest states that are battle ground states in both the primary and general elections.
The national Republican convention is in July in Cleveland. The Republican candidate would emerge during this convention. If Mr. Trump or Mr. Cruz get to the convention with enough delegates to win at first ballot, he would have the tough job of uniting the three groups together in four months. There will probably nodding of heads in support but neither man can win the soul and support of the leadership group or of those Republicans in Name Only (RNO). Most polls show a double figure win advantage for either of the Democratic Candidates.
The danger for the GOP is that the senate might tumble over in the disaster that would follow.
Obama would have exerted his sweetest revenge. And senator McConnell who had vowed to make him a onetime failed president would eat his words as he watches Obama’s 3rd term, most of which he would have been a Minority Leader.
US’s two party structure has been tested more than a few times and each time it passes the test with excellent grades. This is not the first time someone thought that one of the parties would go under, but each time the assumed dead party comes roaring back to life. GOP must now forget about 2016 and start looking for a Ronald Reagan who would bring the fractured party back together. It will take at least the first term of the democratic president to accomplish this goal.
Some of the ways to do this will include:
1. With most of minority groups growing faster than “EU White Population” which has been the base of GOP, it follows that GOP would try to make in ways in both the Hispanic and Black communities. Statements like deporting immigrants; building walls, calling them names; etc. should be paseo.
2. The Party would need to find ways to reduce the influence of the Tea Party in its affairs. The world is now a global village and inward thinking of the TP ought to be reversed. In this election, much of the world has been alarmed by the words-assault on Muslims, by refusal to participate in refugee crisis in EU and Mideast; by the suggestion to use torture in suspect’s interrogations. These are offensive to International Laws and portrays USA as a rogue nation.
3. The division in GOP causes divisions in the entire body politics. Overall US interests must override petty party views. The country needs a common voice and this common voice can only be found at the center. Fringe elements of the right and left must be let go so that the nation can move forward.
There are many more things to be done, but the above should be the starting point. The party of Lincoln should regain its posture when it fought to unify the country and to end slavery. Those were the “times when men were men”.
Will Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Senator McConnell be up to the task?
We will see.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba wrote in from Boston, Massachusetts, USA. [myad]
