Tinubu’s “Reforms”: Shock Therapy Without Relief, By Jazuli Lawal

As Development Economist, I was shocked reading The Financial Times editorial of May 2025 arguing that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has “stabilised the economy” and “turned a corner.” While this assessment may seem encouraging on paper, it is detached from the reality of most Nigerians, who are enduring the worst economic hardship in decades. Far from heralding a recovery, these reforms have plunged millions deeper into poverty, hunger, and despair.

Yes, growth projections may reach 3.7%, but growth without shared prosperity is economic illusion. It is one thing for the World Bank or foreign investors to read green shoots in quarterly reports; it is quite another for ordinary Nigerians to afford a loaf of bread, a litre of petrol, or basic healthcare. In truth, these reforms have inflicted more pain than progress.
1. Fuel Subsidy Removal: Pain Without a Plan
The removal of the fuel subsidy may have been economically justifiable, but it was executed without safety nets for the poor. Transport costs tripled overnight. Food inflation soared above 40%. Public transportation collapsed in many cities. Promised palliatives buses, cash transfers, food programs — either never materialized or were grossly inadequate. For the average Nigerian, this was not reform. It was economic cruelty.
2. Naira Devaluation: Stabilised for Whom?
The editorial praises the naira’s “stabilisation” after its free fall, but at what cost? The official exchange rate may have narrowed against the black market, but imported inflation has devastated households. Medications, textbooks, and technology are now luxuries. The so-called “orthodox monetary policy” has benefited speculators and exporters not the average worker, teacher, or trader. Stability that increases suffering is not progress.
3. Cronyism and Cosmetic Fiscal Changes
While the CBN may have stopped printing money, government waste continues unchecked. Budget padding, inflated contracts, and luxury spending from bulletproof SUVs to a proposed N90 billion pilgrimage subsidies persist. A restructured tax base is meaningless when the proceeds fund elite extravagance instead of schools, clinics, or rural roads.
4. Oil Production: Temporary Gains Amid Systemic Failures
That oil output rose from 1.0 to 1.5 million barrels daily is not a structural win, it is a partial recovery from collapse, not a transformation. Oil theft may be reduced for now, but the deeper issues of diversification, value chain development, and energy access remain unresolved. Worse still, Nigeria’s overdependence on oil continues, as non-oil revenues remain weak and productivity outside Lagos and Abuja stagnates.
5. Inflation and Insecurity: The Twin Threats Ignored
The editorial mildly admits to 24% inflation and ongoing insecurity, but these are not minor challenges, they are national emergencies. Farmers cannot access markets due to banditry. Schools are being closed for fear of abductions. In this context, talking about investor access to dollars misses the mark. The real economy — the economy of ordinary people is in distress.
6. Who Feels the Reform? Not the People.
To claim that Nigeria is in “better shape” than in the last decade is an insult to Nigerians whose real incomes have eroded, whose children are out of school, and who are being told to “endure” while political elites fly private jets and allocate billions for luxury offices. If this is the price of reform, it is too high, too cruel, and too disconnected from any real social contract.
Conclusion: Reform Must Deliver, Not Destroy
The Financial Times rightly notes that Nigeria has potential, but potential does not feed empty stomachs. Nigeria does not need shock therapy that breaks its people before healing its economy. Real reform must be inclusive, empathetic, and transparent. What we are witnessing under Tinubu is not reform, but elite restructuring where the same political class gains, while the masses are told to be patient and patriotic in poverty.
Nigeria can indeed turn the corner, but not with policies that privilege IMF applause over local realities, or foreign investor optimism over domestic survival. True reform must touch the lives of ordinary people or it remains nothing but a foreign illusion and a local tragedy.

Dr. Jazuli Lawal is M.CIoD, Development Economist & Management Consultant Abuja, Nigeria, in a rejoinder to the Financial Times Editorial.