For the All Progressives Congress, (APC), the July 14 gubernatorial election in Ekiti is like the epic battle of two bitter, ancient football rivals. In the first finals, the prejudiced referee acted like a striker, midfielder and linesman for one side.  In this new battle, the once defeated side now has another chance for a rematch without the hindrance of a partisan referee. This time around, the incumbent, Mr AyodeleFayose and his crony, Mr OlusolaElenka will no longer have free kick of the ball. The Federal might, which has always been Fayose’s spring, now hosts his imminent pitfall. But one big mistake is for the once defeated side to field the same team, use the same strategy without tactical alteration. Figuratively, the defeated team is currently choosing its line-up.  On May 5, its captain will be picked.

Four years after the defeat of the All Progressives Congress, (APC), the party is desperate to reclaim a battered image. However, even with the assumed backing of the Federal authorities, the defeat of Mr Fayose and his crony is not given. The possibility of APC dodging another devastating downfall depends on who wins the primary election slated for this Saturday. While Fayose has given a clear direction on his path, the APC is enmeshed on a riotous, trampling race that may produce a candidate who may be another Fayose’s piecemeal. This is the grave error that APC leadership might commit. This is the dangerous path they might take to the party’s peril. To win the election, the APC has the historic responsibility to organize a primary that is not driven by cash nor motivated by the short-sightedness of a few cabal in the core-North who has been rumoured to be hell-bent on influencing the primary with enormous resources to the detriment of long term stability and prosperity of the commonwealth.

To win the main election, APC needs a sharp break from the past. The party needs a bold, decisive, courageous and iron-cast figure whose sneeze will send Fayose scampering. The party also needs a candidate that will not betray the party. In the context of the realignment on-going in the country, there is the fact that an APC candidate without long standing ideology may be swayed to lead an onslaught against the same APC in the coming years. There are indeed real dangers that Fayose actually has a mole or moles among the aspirants. This is the reason why flirtatious politicians-and some of them are contestants in the APC primary-with a rich history of promiscuity and ambivalence, must be avoided like a plague. It is better to hack them now, despite their pretences, than to have to live with the atrocities they will hatch.

Apart from these considerations, the APC leadership must be awake to the political realities in Eikiti State without which the party will commit dreadful errors that will make her flounder and be washed away like feeble grains. In the first place, the APC needs to pick the candidate with the highest propensity to win the governorship race. A key consideration is to understand the balance of political forces, voter’s strength, where it is most potent and the history of voting patterns in the state.

Already, Fayose has scored a key political point by picking his candidate from Ikere, a key city in Ekiti. How does the APC counter this move? There are 2, 195 polling units in Ekiti State. Out of this, Ikere has 86 polling units. The number of registered voters in Ikere is 65,000. The possibility of Ekiti APC producing an Ikere candidate in the next primary has been hampered by the fact that five APC candidates have emerged from this historic town. Though Dr WoleOluyede was unanimously agreed by a powerful section in the city, the other four have spat defiantly in the sky and captured the sputum, in anger, with a splash on their faces.  The four are going ahead with equal momentum.

Ikere also has to contend with cultural divisions occasioned by the gulf along her polarized traditional institutions. Ekiti South has the highest aspirants of 11;  Oye council is the next with the highest number of 5; Ekiti central 7; North 7; Gbonyin 3; Ekiti East 2; IseOrun 2; IrepodunIfelodun 2; Ijero 2; IdoOsi; Ekiti East 2;  Emure 2. In all, there are 33 aspirants out of which 27 have been cleared by the screening committee. Considering the balance of forces, all the 27 aspirants will have to scramble for delegates in 15 LGs, except Ado which has only one aspirant, Senator BabafemiOjudu. Ikere for instance will split between 5 candidates. Ido-Osi will be a battle ground between two aspirants. Oye where Dr KayodeFayemi, Senator Ayo Arise, Bimbo Daramola and others come from will be fiercely contested by 5 aspirants.

The only LG that stands out is Ado, with 182 delegates, by far the highest in the entire state and the most cohesive.  Ikere has about 56 delegates. Ado Ekiti, where Senator BabafemiOjudu comes from will be going as one team.  From the prism of logic and common sense,   all what Ado needs is to win pockets of support from other LGs to clinch the trophy.  There is no doubt that a candidate from Ado will strengthen the potential of APC winning the July 14 poll.

Traditionally, Ado has always been the most remarkable electoral determinant of Ekiti voting outlook.

At the advent of electoral politics in Ekiti history, it took some time for the Action Group, (AG) to be able to penetrate the entire Ekiti province for no other reason that the initial Ado support for the NCNC. Not until the trend was broken was AG, which came to Ado in the 1940s, able to overwhelm Ekiti area.

In 1955, for instance, one of the first major political contests took place between Awodimula from Ode Ekiti, Chief Familoni from IdoEkiti and JE Babatola from Ado Ekiti. Babatola won in the AG primary and won the main election.

In 2003 elections, OtunbaNiyi Adebayo won in 12 of the 16 LGs.  Fayose turned the table with votes from Ado. No election has been held in Ekiti State without Ado being the major pathfinder. In the last election for instance, Ado had 137,155 out of 733,766 registered voters trailed by IrepodunIfelodun 54,085; Ijero 49,417 votes, Ikole 49, 390; Ekiti East 47, 288 and Ikere with a distant 45,611.

Ado had 59,480 votes, Ijero 26, 589; Ikole 26, 252 with Ikere at a distant 25,889. There is the fear that irrespective of the contradictions, if APC picks a candidate from Ikere, the votes will be shared decisively between the APC and the PDP whose candidate is also from Ikere.  Picking a candidate elsewhere apart from Ado will strengthen Fayose who is waiting in the wings to pick his deputy from Ado-Ekiti. The only way to neutralize him is to pick the APC candidate from Ado.

Primary elections are often determined first by kinsman loyalty of delegates. As it is, Ado presents a strategic posting as the most audacious bride.While Ikere has not produced a governor in Ekiti, it has produced the governor of old Ondo State. Ado has neither produced the Governor of Ekiti nor the governor of old Ondo State. Most of most significant towns have cultural and blood-bound ties with Ado. The cultural institutions in Ado historically has unprecedented network across the towns and villages in Ekiti which has been energized since Ojudu joined the race for overwhelming victory. It must be noted that in the past, Ado often deliberately play the role of the kingmaker by refusing to produce a governorship aspirant, but this time around, the entire city  with a zeal and determination never before seen, has chosen Senator Ojudu as the one and only aspirant on the platform of the APC. Good enough for the APC, Ojudu has a rich history of radical struggle, consistency, bravery, iron-cast nerve and infact, he is the lion that can scare stiff Fayose and his agent.  He performed this same feat in 2011 when he scored 64,000 plus votes in the Senatorial election dusting Fayose almost thrice. Certainly, the clincher of the APC will be to pick its candidate from Ado-Ekiti. Omission of this calculation will be another costly error that may plunge the APC into another whirlwind of regret and defeat. Fayose is like a vulture, hovering to see if on May 5, APC will bring forth another carcass in the form of a weakling that will give him another cheap victory. A candidate from Ado is one sure way to cut down the PDP like grass and make it wither like a flower without nurture. The APC leadership has the choice to make or mar. [myad]

“If we don’t tackle this problem now, help this people out, our children will not be able to visit this place, not to talk of live here in the future.” These were the exact words used by Senator BabafemiOjudu in a prose elegy he wrote for late Olufunmilayo Adunni Olayinka, who died while serving as deputy to the immediate past governor of Ekiti State, Dr John Kayode Fayemi.

Ojudu titled the elegy ‘Adunni: The journey of an accidental politician’. Though he claimed the words were not his and he credited them to the late deputy governor, who happened to be a native of Ado Ekiti like him, they could as well be described as a retrospection of sort. Due to some characters displayed by Ojudu over time, which people have described as alien to political conducts, it might not be wrong for the Senator and Special Adviser to have on different occasions asked himself why he was venturing into the rough tidal terrain of Nigerian politics. But, again, Senator Ojudu is a resolute fighter, who would not give up on his conviction. He would have consoled himself with the words of the legendary Plato that one of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that one ends up being governed by one’s inferiors.

From being a journalist to a human rights activist to a pro-democracy activist to a reformer, then a Senator and currently a Special Adviser to the President of Nigeria on Political Matters, Ojudu’s journey of becoming a politician is a highly inspiring one. Though he is neither an infantile democrat nor a rookie progressive, his venturing into politics must have been informed by the belief that politics was too serious a matter to be left to the politicians. His mindset has always been that whenever the rights of one man are threatened, the rights of every man are diminished. This explains why he has contested and won an election before, and has, as well, been appointed a political adviser. He is well-known for his innovative ideas and initiatives raising revolutionary consciousness in people.

As Ekiti State goes in search of a governor that will right all the wrongs of the incumbent AyodeleFayose, and as the progressives in the All Progressives Congress jostle for the single ticket, which would serve as the ace, certain factors must notch an aspirant above others. And when one thinks of the character traits that make a good politician like integrity and optimism, Senator BabafemiOjudu soars shoulder high above the rest aspirants, especially considering the following factors that can just not be overlooked:

Senator Babafemi Ojudu rates very high among those who fought for the return of democracy in Nigeria as currently being enjoyed. Even as a journalist, Ojudu played a very active part in not only reorientating journalists in the country towards emancipation from dictatorship, but confronting the military dictatorship headlong. He was unfairly incarcerated for fighting for the entrenchment of democratic rule in Nigeria. He suffered other forms of persecutions, but his spirit remained non-shattered until democracy was achieved.

In everything he does, Ojudu puts boldness into it. Boldness in this contest doesn’t mean being rude, obnoxious, loud, or disrespectful. Rather, Ojudu’s boldness makes him to be firm, sure, confident, fearless, daring, strong, resilient, and not easily intimidated. It means he is ever willing to go where he has never been, willing to try what he has never tried, and willing to trust the team he leads that they will always trust his leadership. Ojudu’s boldness is an honest one, and it comes to him naturally. It is roused by the assurance that he is always doing his best to right the wrongs. For instance, when Babangida said he was interested in running for president in the 2011 democratic elections, Ojudu, yet a journalist, boldly said that the second coming of Babangida to rule the nation should be resisted by every Nigerian who wanted progress for the country. In his words, “Babangidadoes not have anything good to offer us. We have suffered enough in his hands… He is a trickster. Look at how many journalists were killed during his time. Look at what he did to our colleagues (journalists)… Look at what happened to our institutions when he was around. He destroyed the system and he is now seeking to come back”.

Everyone who has ventured into pursuing a course alongside Ojudu will attest to his doggedness and tenacity. According to Malcolm Gladwell, success is a function of persistence and doggedness and the willingness to work hard for twenty-two minutes to make sense of something that most people would give up on after thirty seconds. That is BabafemiOjudu for you. He is determined. Even in the face of setbacks, you will find him displaying a high dose of enthusiasm and persistence. His never-say-die spirit is not only legendary but contagious, as he would always encourage those around him never to give up. Ojudu remains the only person within the progressive fold that has beaten Fayose hands down in a political contest. In the April 2011 election for the Ekiti Central Senatorial seat, Ojudu polled 67,747 running on the ACN platform to beat Ayo Fayose, then Labour Party (LP) candidate and former Ekiti State Governor to a distant third with 29,773 votes. This is the only political dent that Fayose has to date, and which has kept him shut from boasting that he is unbeatable in Ekiti politics.

Ojudu is straightforward and has come to challenge the assumption that an honest politician is one of those oxymoron that people don’t dare fantasize about. Alongside the first two traits, he displays a high sense of integrity, which may have been his source of boldness. One of the truest tests of integrity is its blunt refusal to be compromised. With integrity, Ojudu has not and cannot be compromised. He has nothing to fear, and he has nothing to hide. His character reads like an open book. Like Bob Marley once observed, the greatness of a man is not in how much wealth he acquires, but in his integrity and his ability to affect those around him positively.

If indeed tyranny of the majority counts as an inherent weakness of direct democracy and majority rule in which the majority of an electorate can and does place its own interests above, and at the expense of, those in the minority, then one would need to take the voting demography of Ekiti, with the domination of Ado Ekiti, serious as the state approaches the next governorship election.

More than 60 people are jostling for the Ekiti governorship seat just in all the political parties fielding candidates. 33 of them are vying for the single slot within the APC. Yet among all of them, only Senator BabafemiOjudu is contesting from Ado Ekiti, the one-town local government area and state capital, with the highest voting capacity of 180,000. Ikere, which comes next to Ado with 55,000 voting capacity, has the highest number of aspirants for the coveted seat, including Fayose’s deputy and surrogate, Professor KolapoOlusolaEleka of PDP. Segun Oni is from Ifaki in Ijero Local Government and he has other aspirants to contest with from his LGA. Fayemi, who is from Oye Local Government will be slugging it out with no fewer than five other aspirants from his local government. So are all others, except Ojudu who is standing as the lone runner from Ado Ekiti. This cannot be explained off as a mere coincidence, but as a deliberate attempt by the people of Ado to pack their political strength behind their courageous son, thus may have discouraged any other indigene from pitting against Ojudu.

Apart from these factors that may count in the build up to the 14 July governorship election in Ekiti State, Senator BabafemiOjudu also has some character traits that should be taken into consideration in determining who the governorship cap fits. They include honesty, intelligence, good instincts, diplomacy, loyalty, passion, team spirit, listening skills and empathy. [myad]