OPEC Dreams Big, Raises 2015 Oil Demand Forecast
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is dreaming big for members as it expects that the world oil demand will grow by 1.38 million barrels per day — about 90,000 more than announced in its July estimates.
OPEC, today, revised upward its growth forecast for global oil demand in 2015 and maintained projected record levels of world consumption next year, despite turbulent market conditions spurred by financial instability in Greece and China.
In its August monthly report, the Organization, which has traditionally defended price levels by cutting output when necessary, dramatically switched strategy last November when it opted to leave its production target unchanged.
“Given the better-than-expected growth in global oil demand so far this year, together with some signs of a pickup in the economies of the major consuming countries, crude oil demand in the coming months should continue to improve and, thus, gradually reduce the imbalance in oil supply-demand fundamentals,” OPEC noted in its latest report.
Oil prices collapsed 60 percent between last June and January, hitting a low of $45. This was due in part to a supply glut caused by the boom in US shale oil.
The cartel also stuck to last month’s prognosis that demand growth in 2016 would reach 1.34 million barrels per day thanks to global GDP expansion set to reach 3.5 percent, up from 3.2 percent this year.
OPEC has since stuck to this strategy, keeping its output target level at 30 million barrels per day.
On Monday, the World Bank warned that the lifting of sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme would have a “significant impact” on the world oil market in 2016.
Iran’s return to the global market would eventually add about a million barrels of oil a day, lowering prices by $10 per barrel, the bank said.
Oil markets have also been shaken by China’s reduced economic growth and collapsing stock market.
As a result of losses “triggered by China’s stock market slump” and global supply glut, US crude prices posted their biggest monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis, with Texas light sweet declining to $47.12 per barrel on July 31.
Meanwhile, general expectations for Europe’s oil demand during 2015 have improved since OPEC’s last monthly report, but remain “coupled with large uncertainties” over the region’s economic developments, particularly in Greece, the cartel said. [myad]
Governor Wada and Marginalisation in Kogi by Dr Tom Adaba
Perhaps it may be necessary to define marginalization and cite a few, among the innumerable and outrageous instances of abuse of power and office in the name of marginalization by Governor Wada and his predecessors in a series of Igala governance.
By way of definition and education of all who cannot see happenings in Kogi State as marginalization, the Webster’s Collegiate Dictionary describes it as “the relegation to an unimportant position within a society or group”
In stating the entrenchment of a series of unforgivable marginalization in the State, we may have to make a comparative analysis of Wada’s government viz-a-vis that of the founding Governor Abubakar Audu (1991 – 1993 and 1999 – 2003).
In Kogi State, there are three senatorial districts
• East – comprising Igala and minorities like Bassa-Komu; Bassange Egbira Mozum
The State’s Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) stands at
Audu’s 6-year governance of two terms (1991 – 93 and 1999 – 2003) produced the following:-
17 Commissioners out of which nine were from the East, while four each come from the West and Central respectively.
33 Permanent Secretaries with 18-from Kogi East, 10 from the West and 5 from Central.
In the State’s Civil Service of 33,000 workforce, the East had a lion share of 23,100, while 5,940 were from the West and 3,960 were from the Central. Here one wonders whether it is the brilliance or competence of the Igalas in Benue State that had given them this advantage on arrival in Kogi. For those of us who were there at the inception of the State and knew the caliber of products that were moved from Benue State Civil Service to the new State of Kogi, we have our huge doubts, we denounced the fictitious figures and have been proved right by the recent audit that revealed the huge deposit of ghost workers.
If Audu’s government was inequitous, Ibrahim Idris’ and Wada’s are a glaring display of impunity. The figures below attest:
Wada’s government has 18 Commissioners out of which 9 are from the East, 5 West and 4 Central.
60 Special Advisers with a whopping 30 from his home area, the East while the West and Central have 20 and 10 respectively.
Wada’s government has 83 Senior Special Assistants out of which 41 (50%) are from the East, 26 (31.1%) from the West and 16 (19.1%)from the Central.
Of Gov. Wada’s 242 Special Assistants, 139 are from the East, 66 from the West and 37 from Central.
Could this be somebody’s idea of justice, fairness and equitable distribution? Could this be the opposite of marginalization?
Of the 32 Permanent Secretaries, 24 (75%) are from the East while the West and Central share 4 or 12.5% each. Again one wonders if the civil service knowledge, skills and even experience are the exclusive preserve of the East. Here again, we reiterate in the negative.
Indeed the reverse should be the case because the reservoir of highly talented, experienced and skilled staff from the West and Central have been edged out by the nepotic system and replaced by the Igalas.
The State has 25 Board Chairmen comprising 14 (56%) from the East, 8 (32%) from the West and 3 (12%) from Central.
The present government of Kogi State headed by Capt Idris Wada has a Civil Service of 18,650 which breaks down as follows:
10,393 (approx 56%) from the East,
4,977 (27%) from the West; and
3,280 (17%) from Central
On the distribution of road projects, the East has N39.3billion for about 476.6 kilomretres, the West N21.9billion for 209-kilometres, while Central has a paltry N3.3billion for 62 kilometres. It is however an irony that despite these figures, one cannot see a translation of them in action.
The litany of primitive imbalances is legion. If all these are not heartless instances of marginalization, we are not sure what else to call it. Perhaps, it may make better sense labeling it inequitous voodoo governance.
This must change. Kogi has all the potentials for a first class State in the Federal Republic of Nigeria, considering its history, strategic location and boundless endowment. The time has come to flush out ineptitude and jungle inequity. It is time to redeem Kogi State by installing a civilized, just, fair and equitable government.
Dr A Tom Adaba, OON
Chairman, Media & Publicity
Kogi West and Central Forum for Equity and Justice