One of the huge problems President Muhammadu Buhari is faced with literally thrust itself in his face last week. The great shut down and the total paralysis of the nation because oil marketers refused to lift oil over the non-payment of their outrageous and fraudulent subsidy claims must have told him something about the monsters in the oil industry and their unholy strangle hold on the nation’s economic jugular. The new president does not need to look further to see that since his time in that ministry in the 1970s, the under underbelly of our petroleum industry has become so rotten it is unsightly.
The fraud and the corruption in the fuel subsidy regime is a tip of the iceberg. It confronts Buhari with tough choices. His first choice is to let it be business as usual by continuing to fund the subsidy. I am sure he needs no one to tell him this option would compromise the change he has promised us. Anything that makes him helpless makes the people hopeless.
The other option is for him to ride on the crest waves of his grassroots support by scrapping the current vote for fuel subsidy in the federal budget. If he takes this option, he would risk a possible public outcry or even backlash. Can he risk it? Yes, he can. It would be the hard-headed right step in the right direction. He needs one bold policy step to set the tone of his administration.
It requires courage; the sort of courage we believe the president has. It requires commitment; the sort of commitment we believe the president has towards recovering our country from the bands of thieves that act with sickening impunity.
The best brains in the oil industry have repeatedly told us there is no subsidy on our petroleum products. But the payments go on. Senator Bukola Saraki has estimated that in the last five or six years, “over $32 billion (had been) wasted on it.” According to him, the country loses “a total of $2 billion to fake fuel subsidy operators.”
There are about 82 of such companies officially licensed by the NNPC to perpetrate the fraud and the mindless corruption. The federal government pays three or four times the budgeted vote for fuel subsidy every year.
The immediate cause of the strike last week by oil marketers was the refusal by the then minister of finance and co-ordinating minister of the economy, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. She did not think the N159 billion the marketers submitted to the government as foreign exchange variation was authentic. She not only vowed not to pay but also took the unusual step of urging Nigerians not “..to allow themselves to be blackmailed.”
Buhari is a former minister of petroleum resources. He is not ignorant of the political game in the NNPC and its parent ministry. In a short video interview on YouTube the president made it clear he did not believe there was fuel subsidy. He asked rhetorically: “Who is subsiding whom?” His conclusion is that it is all part of the fraud and corruption in the system. Aha, yes, the president knows.
The politics of oil subsidy has a long sentimental history. Nigerians believe that as citizens of an oil-producing nation they should pay less, much less, for petroleum products. The poor are also entitled to a good slice of the national cake you know. This sentimental argument has led to many experiments and permutations.
Each time the federal government increased the prices of petroleum products it tried to protect the poor by introducing some so-called cushioning effects. President Ibrahim Babangida introduced one price for commercial vehicles and another for other private vehicle owners. It did not work. The poor did not benefit from it in any shape or form.
The late head of state, General Sani Abacha, increased the price of petroleum products from three Naira to three Naira fifty kobo. He used two and half percent of the new price to set up the Petroleum Trust Fund, PTF, headed by Muhammadu Buhari, our new president. That fund did titanic things with the rehabilitation of roads, health and educational institutions.
Obasanjo increased the prices of petroleum products three times in his eight years in office. His last increase and the failed attempt to cushion its effect on the poor was the massive purchase of buses, motorcycles and Keke Napep by state governments for sale to “bona fide” transporters at subsidized prices. There were no takers. A massive waste of public funds. The contractors laughed to the banks. The people were cheated, not helped.
The mathematics of fuel subsidy seems simple. NPPC licenses independent petroleum marketers to bring in petroleum products and sell at prices dictated by the NNPC instead of prices dictated by demand and supply in the oil sector. The marketers ask the corporation to pay the difference between the landing cost and the pump price. The corporation pays up. This is supposed to be the fuel subsidy, easily the quickest path to the billionaire club.
The 2011 general elections witnessed the indiscriminate recruitment and the licensing of at least 115 fuel importers, most of whom had never imported one litre of petroleum products in their lives. The fuel subsidy payment ballooned to more than one trillion Naira. The three approving authorities – President Jonathan, his wife and the minister of petroleum resources, Mrs. Deziani Madueke – could not have been more generous to their friends and the sons and daughters of political acquaintances. When EFCC tried to investigate the worst excesses in these payments for fuel not supplied, it chickened out when it found that the trail led upstairs. Matter closed.
Buhari has the answer to the fuel subsidy cut out for him, almost. If there is no subsidy, the question of removing it does not arise. All he has to do is to explain to the public that the government would no longer fund private businessmen at the expense of the people in the petroleum sector. Throwing out the subsidy nonsense should signal the beginning of the massive clean up in the ministry of petroleum resources, NNPC and its subsidiaries that he must undertake.
Cleaning up the oil industry is a huge and complicated problem. I have no illusions about what Buhari would confront here. Our past leaders allowed sentiments to trump courage in the decision making process here. It is no use blaming the so-called cabal, a faceless but powerful group of men in the industry who determines what happens there. Buhari has to take them on. They cannot be more powerful than the government itself. Blaming the cabal is a cop out. It excuses the do nothing about the problem that is killing our economy.
Buhari is in luck too. During the fuel subsidy claims and counter-claims, in 2012, both the NNPC and the federal government set up committees to study the problems and advise them on what to do. Nuhu Ribadu, former EFCC boss, headed one and the banker, Belgore, headed the other.
They have been gathering dust. Buhari needs to dust off these reports. I am sure they will provide him with enough information to enable him draw up the road map he needs to navigate his way through the piranha infested murky waters of fraud and corruption in the oil sector.
Buhari should put an end to our dancing around the full deregulation of the petroleum. It is the way to go. We have been victims of sentiments for too long here. While we protest even minimal increases in the prices of petroleum products, we see no contradictions in our behaviour when we pay as much N600 per litre when the oil marketers induce artificial scarcity. Let the oil marketers import fuel, charge economic rate and let us put this nonsense of periodic fuel shortages behind us.
The shame of an oil-producing nation with four failed refineries is just that – a big shame. Buhari is not super human. But I have the audacity to believe he has the audacity to make changes we can live with happen.

[myad]

“I dare say that the path of honour that President Goodluck Jonathan chose will not be forgotten and that, on that score, history will be kind to him.”
This was the verdict of the former Nigeria Vice President, Atiku Abubakar when he spoke at a Gala night to usher-in the government of President Muhammadu Buhari and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.
Read the full text:
I am really excited to be here for this Gala Night, part of the activities marking the handing over of power from an out-going government to an in-coming one. As many commentators have said since our recent elections and in the various remarks today, this is truly a historic day for our country and, indeed, Africa.
After going through tough election campaigns, amidst the numerous challenges facing our country, we were able to pull off largely peaceful and credible elections. And, today we went through a peaceful transition from one government of one political party to another of another political party. For us in Nigeria, and indeed most of Africa, this is a big deal. Our democracy is the winner. Nigeria is the winner.
I heartily congratulate our new President, Muhammadu Buhari, and Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo, on their election and their assumption of office today. I also congratulate and thank all those who made his election possible, and those who have worked so hard to ensure the success of today’s events.
I congratulate President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan for his service to our country and for helping to deepen our democracy by going through with the transition that took place earlier today. I dare say that the path of honour that he chose will not be forgotten and that, on that score, history will be kind to him. Mr President, I wish you good rest and goodluck in your future endeavours.
I thank the various countries that have been represented at today’s events, and especially those that have, over the past years, stayed engaged with Nigeria’s democratic process. I thank you for your attention to and support for Nigeria’s democratic development and for coming to celebrate with us today.
True, a new government has taken over today. Expectedly, expectations are extremely high. Reading through some of the expressed expectations and watching the excitement on our people’s faces, you would think that all our challenges are supposed to be met today or tomorrow at the latest. Of course, things are not that simple. Enormous challenges lie ahead. The new government will need time and diligence to take stock of the existing reality that it meets, to find the right people, plan properly and source the resources needed to begin to meet those challenges. And it will need the support of all. We will need to be patient and cooperate with the government.
As the new government ponders and goes through this difficult process, it should not forget that Nigeria is a diverse country and that our diversity is our strength. It will be important to be as inclusive as possible not only to take advantage of the diverse talents scattered across the country but also to accommodate all stakeholders in the governance project. These will promote a sense of belonging and worth by all and ensure needed peace for our continued growth and development.
Once more, I congratulate Presidents Buhari and Jonathan. I thank you all for coming. God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

This is a goodwill Message by Atiku Abubakar, GCON, former Vice President, Federal Republic of Nigeria, at the Gala Dinner to mark the Hand-over of Power to President Muhammadu Buhari, GCFR and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, GCON, by President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, GCFR, at the Banquet Hall, Presidential Villa, Abuja on May 29, 2015. [myad]

My friend, a civil servant with the Benue state government was very confident of a Buhari win in this year’s election. I was hoping too that Buhari would win but his confidence was just overwhelming.
His confidence was induced by something personal, even selfish. In 1983, the State government owed him three months salary; then Buhari struck at the end of the year and the new state government led by Col Atom Kpera cleared the backlog. As this year’s elections approached, the government of Gabriel Suswam also piled up salaries, refusing to pay workers for months running. “History is going to repeat itself. Buhari will come and my salaries will be paid”, he often prophesied to me.
As much as I wanted Buhari to win, I was restrained in my optimism by the frightening company that the incumbent President (Jonathan) kept. There was the boorish Doyin Okupe who as a Presidential spokesman, told us that even if Buhari won, Jonathan would rather invite the military to take over; there was also the war monger, Mujahadin Asari Dokubo – Jonathan’s collaborator – who promised to wage war against Nigeria if Buhari won; and lastly the half literate and amazing first Lady Patience, who called for the stoning and public lynching of anybody advocating” change.”
The prospects of a Buhari presidency were rather dim to me.
The swearing in of Buhari last Friday was a welcome relief for both of us. My friend is now sure of his salary and my hopes are fulfilled. The man from the hinterland of North East is sure of his security and so is the man from North Central and North West where terrorism was fast creeping in. Same could be said of the man in the South East, South West and South South where kidnappers, armed robbers and ritual killers are on the prowl. In his hour of glory, Buhari’s neat rendition of spontaneous oratory summed it up all. He man said; “I’m for everybody and I’m for nobody.”
Buhari has always been a sub editor’s delight. His public speeches are short, poetic and loaded with wise cracks. It is easy to cast newspaper headlines with his quotable quotes. But Buhari is not a newspaper man and if his record of service in his first coming is to be reviewed, he is even not a newspaper fan.
How can Buhari be for everybody and still not be for anybody? We may have to look at his performance in his first coming to hazard an answer. When his coup was announced, the first political group to celebrate was the Unity Party of Nigeria, the UPN. Stalwarts of the UPN had consistently called on the military to intervene after the elections of 1983. When the coup came, they gladly welcomed it only to discover that the government was at war with party men and top government officials of all political persuasion. The UPN became suspicious; Tai Solarin put pen to paper and in a letter to Buhari, which he personally tried to deliver at Dodan Barracks, urged the military to order a recount of the votes in that year’s election and handover the government to Obafemi Awolowo who he said was the winner. When this was not done, the Nigerian Tribune, the UPN newspaper declared that the military men who took over power belonged to the military wing of the NPN and the coup was aimed at advancing the cause of the NPN. That was how the Buhari military government began to lose the support of Chief Awolowo and the South West.
The government also had another image problem. In announcing the coup, Sani Abacha had advised all political office holders to report to the police. Those who did were immediately locked up. Soon a large number of politicians found themselves in prison, some for inexplicable reasons. For instance, some of us could not understand why a man like Balarabe Musa who gave the NPN a good fight and who campaigned vigorously against graft before and after he became governor of Kaduna State would be imprisoned. Personally, the coup met me as Chief Press Secretary to Bamanga Tukur, Governor of Gongola State. I was sacked with immediate effect. That did not pain me because I came back to the newsroom immediately to resume my duties as a reporter.
What I could not understand with the Buhari government was the detention of Bamanga Tukur. When he came into government (Oct 1983), the coffers of the state government were empty. Gongola was broke. Even if he came into government with the intention to steal, there was no money there to steal. General Buhari himself came to see him in Yola shortly before the coup and I suspect he was briefed on the perilous state of the Gongola economy. But Buhari arrested and kept him at Kirikiri prison until he himself was overthrown by Babangida. What pleasure did that government derive in holding people in jail without charge for prolonged periods?
But the Buhari government had yet another flaw; it was a very fundamental weakness that has dogged Buhari’s political career even after he left office. General Buhari was a Muslim from the North. He was Head of State, number one man. Another Muslim from the North, General Idiagbon was Chief of Staff Supreme Headquarters, number two man. Yet another Muslim, General Ibrahim Babangida was Chief of Army Staff, number three man. We should now begin to understand the roots of the accusations that Buhari is an Islamic bigot. Can Buhari say that these accusations did not adversely affect his quest for Presidency in 2003, 2007 and 2011?
I have met the President briefly on a few occasions between 1981 and 2015. I do not believe the accusations of religious bigotry against him, even though our meetings have been brief at each encounter. In fact, I do not believe any military officer of his class – brought up by the British to be an ‘officer and a gentleman’ – ever had the environment to develop religious fundamentalism. They lived in the barracks and the officers mess as if they were a family. What they developed instead was esprit de corps.
Still, Buhari in 1984 was at the head of a government that was insensitive to the religious plurality of Nigeria and that earned him the unpleasant stigma. My greatest fear is that I see history repeating itself in his second coming. He is the head of the executive branch; a Muslim. The Chief Justice of the Federation, head of the Judiciary, Mahmud Mohammed, was there before him, a Muslim. As things stand now, I understand Buhari himself is in support of another Muslim heading the Legislative arm of government. This complete circle will reinforce his image as a religious bigot and place a time bomb on the lap of his government.
It is a mistake that is completely avoidable and those of us who wish Buhari well will not shy away from saying so now that it is not too late. [myad]