The Chairman of the Authority of Heads of State of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), John Draman Mahama has said that the Saturday’s Presidential election in Nigeria means more to members of the regional body and other parts of the world than what Nigerians expected. Mahama who is also the President of Ghana, in a speech at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja said: “as you know, Nigeria is a very important member of ECOWAS. The largest economy; the largest nation in the ECOWAS region and so Nigeria’s safety and security is the safety of and security of the whole of ECOWAS region. So, I stand on behalf of all the Presidents of ECOWAS and wish that all Nigerians will come out and express their votes and their votes would count towards electing who becomes the next leader of this country.” Mahama said that he was in Nigeria in hid capacity as the Chairman of ECOWAS on election visit, saying “as you are aware, our sub- region this year, has five countries that are going through elections and ECOWAS has been involved in ensuring that this elections are held in peaceful and transparent environment. “And so, ECOWAS has undertaken in all these countries that are facing elections, long term electoral observer missions. These missions have been monitoring the electoral process in the lead up to the elections not just before the elections, but from a longer period. “We have received several monitoring reports and we are working together with the electoral commissions of the countries and the authorities of those countries “We have tried to ensure that obstacles to free and fair elections are removed to ensure that election are free and fair. People would accept the results of those elections. As chairman of the authorities of Heads of State of ECOWAS, I have extended my solidarity to the Nigerian people through my brother President Jonathan, to see that the whole of ECOWAS, not only ECOWAS, but the international community is in solidarity with Nigeria to have a very transparent election so that the democratic process in Nigeria will be better entrenched.” The Ghaninan President said that ECOWAS would continue to monitor the situation and would do everything possible to stand in solidarity with Nigerian people to ensure that this election pass on successfully and Nigerian continue in the role that it plays in the sub -regional bodies.
Delta State governor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan has given out the sum of N500 Million to 100 first class graduates of universities in various discipline for the year 2013, under the First Class Graduate Scholarship Scheme. This was even as governor Uduaghan challenged parents to ensure proper upbringing of their children. He emphasised that parents owe it as a duty to ensure that their children and wards are properly brought up in order to achieve a better family unit and better organized society. Speaking at the presentation of the scholarship awards in Asaba, the governor said that it is impossible for a cultist to bag a first class degree in the university. “Please let us build a better society by properly bringing up our children at the family level; generally, a child who is properly brought up is an asset to the society. No matter the position we attained, personal attention to our children is very important and what we call insecurity starts from the home.” According to him, the principle behind the scholarship scheme is that the IQ of the child who makes first class is very high and the society should not put an impediment to the child who have such IQ to proceed to have a doctoral degree, adding that this is the driving force behind the introduction of the scholarship scheme. “You have to be hard working; you have to be disciplined to be able to make a first class degree and to qualify for the scholarship as you know there is no cult member who makes first class because they do not have time to study. “Before today, we have given our scholarship to one hundred and thirty three graduates and today, we are giving scholarship to one hundred persons, and since each student is entitled to five million naira, we are giving out five hundred million naira today.” He appealed to the beneficiaries to be good ambassadors of the State and urged parents to always allow their children to choose what to study stressing. Speaking on behalf of the beneficiaries, Miss Oke Diateke lauded government Uduaghan for sponsoring the programme, saying that it has challenged Deltans in the universities to strive for excellence, and first class degrees in particular.
Singapore’s first prime minister Lee Kuan Yew, one of the towering figures of post-colonial Asian politics, died today even as President Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria expressed shock ovdr the death.
Lee’s son, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, said in a statement that he was “deeply grieved to announce the passing of Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, the founding Prime Minister of Singapore.”
“Mr. Lee passed away peacefully at the Singapore General Hospital today at 3.18 am,” the statement said. He was 91.
The elder Lee, who dominated Singapore politics for more than half a century, had been in hospital since February 5 with severe pneumonia.
Two years before he died, he disclosed that he had signed a medical directive instructing doctors not to use any life-sustaining treatment if he could not be resuscitated.
Lee was prime minister from 1959, when colonial ruler Britain granted Singapore self-rule, to 1990. He led Singapore to independence in 1965 after a brief and stormy union with Malaysia.
The widely revered patriarch’s death is likely to cast a pall over preparations for the city-state’s 50th anniversary of independence on August 9.
Prime Minister Lee also announced his father’s death on his Facebook page and was immediately flooded with messages of condolence.
On Lee’s watch, Singapore became a sea trade, air transport and financial hub as well as a high-tech industrial centre, prospering despite its compact size and lack of basic natural resources.
“I have to say his success is in taking advantage of Singapore’s natural assets, by which I particularly mean using its geography at the end of the Malay peninsula and on the end of the Malacca Strait,” said Michael Barr, an associate professor of international relations at Flinders University in Australia who wrote a book on Lee’s career.
On the diplomatic front, Lee’s counsel was often sought by Western leaders, particularly on China – which Lee identified early as a driver of world economic growth – as well as more volatile neighbours in Southeast Asia.
“It cannot be denied that Lee Kuan Yew gave Singapore an international profile completely disproportionate to the country’s size,” said Singapore-based political analyst Derek da Cunha.
“It could be argued that Singapore would probably have been an international irrelevancy if not for Lee Kuan Yew.”
Lee stepped down in 1990 in favour of his deputy Goh Chok Tong, who in turn handed the reins to the former leader’s eldest child Lee Hsien Loong in 2004.
The People’s Action Party (PAP), which was co-founded by the elder Lee, has won every election since 1959 and currently holds 80 of the 87 seats in parliament.
Lee retired from advisory roles in government in 2011 after the PAP suffered its worst poll result since it came to power, getting only 60 percent of votes cast amid public anger over a large influx of immigrants, the rising cost of living, urban congestion and insufficient supply of public housing.
He rapidly began to look feeble after his wife of 63 years, Kwa Geok Choo, died in 2010, and has rarely appeared in public in the last two years.
In his last book ‘One Man’s View of the World’, published in 2013, Lee looked back at his remarkable career and concluded: “I am not given to making sense out of life – or coming up with some grand narrative on it – other than to measure it by what you think you want to do in life.
“As for me, I have done what I had wanted to, to the best of my ability. I am satisfied.”
In a condolence message President Jonathan commiserated with the government of Singapore on the death of Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, assuring Prime Minister Lee Hsein Loong and the people of Singapore that Nigeria stands in full solidarity with them as they mourn his legendary father who transformed Singapore from a small port city into a highly developed and prosperous centre of global enterprise.
“The President and people of Nigeria, for whom the globally acclaimed achievements of Singapore under the leadership of Lee Kuan Yew have been a great source of inspiration over the years, join his compatriots and many admirers across the developing world in paying very well deserved tribute to the late Prime Minister who moved his country “from the third world to the first world” with immense wisdom, courage, resilience and perseverance.
“In doing so, the late Lee Kuan Yew set a magnificent and enduring example for present and future world leaders to follow and President Jonathan believes that the iconic leader’s accomplishments in the service of his nation will continue to inspire positive development across the world for many years to come.
“As they mourn the beloved architect of their nation’s rapid development and prosperity, the President urges the people of Singapore to take solace in the knowledge that Lee Kuan Yew will be remembered and honoured forever as a celebrated global citizen whose leadership style, writings, speeches and glorious example will eternally motivate leaders in government and private enterprise.”
The President prayed to God to grant Lee Kuan Yew’s soul eternal rest and comfort his family, people of Singapore and admirers in other countries of the world. [myad]
President-General of the Ikwerre Youth Movement and member of the Rivers State House of Assembly, Hon. Azubuike Wanjoku, has described the political battle in Rivers State as a clash between Christianity and occultism.
Wanjoku said this at praise, prayer and worship conference organised by Ikwerre Youth Movement (IYM) and Ikwerre Women Forum (IWF) in honour of all the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC), led by governorship candidate, Dr. Dakuku Peterside. The ceremony which held at IYM International Secretariat, Alimini, Isiokpo brought together, Ikwerre sons and daughters, including Governor Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi and friends of Ikwerre like Dr. Peterside.
Wanjoku who decried the intimidation and senseless killing of APC members in the state, said they are praising and worshipping God because He has promised freedom for APC.
“We are here because God is on our side. We will not vote for a man without religion. And we must inform the world that the battle in Rivers State is between Christianity and occult but we shall be vindicated because we are children of God.
“Many of you know that Nyesom Wike is my in-law but he is not fit to be a governor. He formed Grassroots Development Initiave, GDI which means Go and Destroy Ikwerre. We are praying here today because PDP has increased killings in Rivers State and we are asking God to liberate us from this power of darkness. And in Jesus name, we will overcome.
“In this battle, Peterside is on the side of God while Wike is on the side of the devil. Surely, God will win”.
Wanjoku described Wike as a traitor who has chosen to bring death and destruction to his own people instead of development and progress. He called on Ikwerre people to reject PDP and their candidates because like Wike, they represent darkness and death. He added that Christians cannot afford to mortgage their freedom of worship and association for anything, warning that everybody must be vigilant and vote for APC which is freedom.
The prayer session also featured goodwill messages and praises from Dame Judith Amaechi, wife of the governor; Hon. Vicky Nyeche, President, IWF; Chief Tony Okocha, Secretary-General, IYM and others. The speakers who described APC’s candidates as forthright and visionary, called on the Ikwerre and people of Rivers State to turn out en mass and vote massively for the APC on March 28 and April 11.
Responding on behalf of all the candidates, Peterside commended Ikwerre youths, men, women and professionals for supporting APC even in a season of persecution.
“I want to thank Ikwerre people for their exceptional love for us. Standing up for truth, I must say, is not always easy but we know the Ikwerre are courageous. You have once again confirmed my earlier endorsement by the Supreme Council of Ikwerre Traditional Rulers in Isiokpo.
“Again, let me use this medium to thank Ikwerre traditional rulers, Ogbako Ikwerre, Council of Ikwerre Professionals and Ikwerre in Diaspora. We will bring development and empowerment here. I will not disappoint you, I promise”.
Meanwhile, Dr. Dakuku Peterside has called on Nigerian students to take their destiny in their hands by demanding for capable and purposeful leadership.
Peterside made the plea at Onne, Eleme Local Government Area when members of National Association of Eleme Students paid him a solidarity visit during Ward 7 mega rally at State School.
APC candidate told the students that it is in their interest to demand answers from any incompetent, corrupt or visionless leadership, adding that failure to do so amounts to either complacency or conspiracy. He described the political struggle in Rivers State as essentially a battle for the youth and their future. He therefore called on them to vote for APC so as to secure that future.
“Let me remind you that you are the future of Eleme. The entire struggle we are engaged in today is because of you, so that you can get employment opportunities and live well after graduation. We also want you to have proper identity as an Eleme person so that you will walk with pride in Nigeria and in Rivers State. You are old enough to challenge oppression in your land, you are not too young to defend your fatherland. I want to see a renaissance and a new vision in Eleme.
Peterside thanked the students and his supporters in Ward 7 for the warm reception and their door-to-door campaign which is already yielding huge dividend in the area. He also commended party leaders for persevering even in the face of persecution. Goodwill messages also came from supporters, candidates and leaders like Oji Ngofa who spoke on the successes of the party so far.
Responding, Peterside expressed delight over APC’s popularity in every nook and cranny of Eleme.
“I must say that this rally can pass for a local government rally in the other party. Who again will vote for them? Eleme people, you will be appropriately rewarded. People can take everything from you but don’t allow them take your identity. If you allow them, your children will never forgive you.”
He pledged to work very hard to bring Onne to where it should be as a strategic town in Rivers State but pleaded with the people to use the coming election to liberate themselves. He said APC remains the only medium of that liberation, insisting that he is convinced God wants to use General Muhammadu Buhari to liberate Eleme and Nigeria. [myad]
Former Aviation Minister, Femi Fani-Kayode, said President Goodluck Jonathan by his misrule, is leaving a legacy of “destruction and disaster” in Nigeria.
Speaking at a book launch in Lagos on Wednesday, Fani-Kayode, in a speech titled ”A Date with Destiny,” said the administration of President Jonathan has plunged the country into financial recklessness, bloodbath (apart from during the civil war) and total misrule never before experienced in the country.
On the planned amnesty for the violent insurgent group, Boko Haram, the former minister said it is an “inglorious endeavour” and an “exercise in futility” that will “set a dangerous precedent.”
“4, 400 precious souls cut short and slaughtered like chicken by Boko Haram in the last two years. How can our government sleep well at night with all that innocent blood that has flowed whilst they are at the helm of affairs of our nation?” the former minister said.
“More innocent souls have been killed in the last 2 years by terrorists than at any other time in the history of Nigeria outside the civil war. How does President Jonathan and his”today’s men” feel about winning such a dubious and dishonourable title? Does he still regard Boko Haram as “his siblings” who he “cannot hurt”?
“Why did the President refuse to visit the good people of the northeast for so long despite the fact that hundreds of people are still being slaughtered there by Boko Haram every day?”
He said the government has proved it does not “give a damn” to the suffering of the people and the loss of lives by not visiting the troubled region until politicians from the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) did; and the president’s lukewarm and delayed response to the recent massacre of 185 people in Baga.
“He did not visit the place until the APC governors took the initiative, did the right thing, went there boldly and paved the way? It was only after that initiative was taken by the opposition that our President woke up from his deep slumber, remembered that he was the Commander in Chief of our Armed Forces and saw fit to go to the north-east. Why did he take so long before doing so?”
“Does the fact that it took our Government two days to even acknowledge that the Baga massacres ever took place and that when they finally did all they said was that they would ”investigate it” not seem rather insensitive? This was after the Sec. Gen. of the U.N. and numerous other world leaders had not only condemned the massacre but had also expressed their condolences to our President, to the Nigerian people and to those that lost their loved ones. Yet to the best of my knowledge not one word of condolence or regret was offered by our President or our Government. Since when have we degenerated to such a point that when our people are killed in such a brazen manner and in such large numbers we don’t even seem to ”give a damn?” Since when have we become a nation of sociopaths that have no feeling and that do not value human life?”
Fani-Kayode said the Jonathan administration has refused to tackle corruption and therefore has plunged the economy into deeper mire by its wanton display of financial impudence.
“When will our President and his ”today’s men” answer David Cameron, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom’s question and tell him what they did with the 100 billion USD that they made from oil sales in the last two years?
“When will they answer Obi Ezekwesili’s question about how they squandered 67 billion USD of our foreign reserves?
“When will they answer the question that Nasir El Rufai asked sometime back about how they spent over 350 billion naira on security vote in one year alone?
“When will they answer the many questions that Pat Utomi and many other distinguished and courageous leaders and ”yesterday’s men” have raised about the trillions of naira that have been supposedly spent on oil subsidy payments in the last two years?
“When will they implement the findings and recommendations of the Nuhu Ribadu report on the thievery that has gone on in the oil sector?
“When will they cultivate the guts and find the courage to respond to a call for a public debate to defend their abysmal record?
“When will these ”today’s men” stop being so reckless with our money?
“Why would our ”today’s man” FCT Minister budget 5 billion for the ”rehabilitation of prostitutes in the Abuja”?
“Why would he budget 7.5 billion naira for a new ”FCT city gate”?
“Why would he budget 4 billion naira for some kind of building or centre for the First Lady? Why would the Federal Government of ”todays men” budget 1 billion naira for food in the Villa? Are these the priorities of ”today’s men?
“And all this when Nigeria is back in foreign debt to the tune of 9 billion USD and is still borrowing, when local debt has hit almost 50 billion USD, when 40 per cent of Nigerians are unemployed, when graduate unemployment has hit 80 per cent, when 40 per cent of Nigerians do not have access to good food and are described by the U.N.D.P as being ”hungry” and when 70 per cent of Nigerians are living below the poverty line? Is this the vision of ”today’s men?” [myad]
A former Aviation Minister, Chief Femi Fani-Kayode, yesterday said the Goodluck Jonathan administration is a “dismal failure”.
In an interview in Lagos, the former minister said he was appalled that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), at its “family dinner” in Abuja, awarded itself a pass mark.
He said the ruling party had lost touch with reality, adding that it was not unexpected of it to award itself a pass mark.
Fani-Kayode said: “I watched the dinner the PDP held and I was appalled by the fact that they gave themselves a pass mark. They were clapping and saying President Jonathan should continue.
“Look, Czar Nicholas of Russia, a night before the Russian Revolution, clapped for himself. This thing happens all the time. Hitler, a night before the Russian knocked on the bunker and he had to kill himself, also clapped for himself. Don’t expect the ruling party, which has lost touch with reality and has become delusioned to score itself in an equitable and fair way. If it is out of 100, they will score themselves 110 over 100.”
The former minister challenged the government to tell Nigerians what it has done to improve on what happened up till May 29, 2007.
He accused the Jonathan administration of allowing every sector to degenerate.
“I challenge them to tell us what they have done to improve on what happened up till 2007. Every single sector has degenerated and the facts and figures are there. We now have 80 per cent graduate unemployment; 70 per cent of Nigerians living below the poverty line. In power generation, we were hitting 4,500 megawatts (MW) per day in 2007. Today, we are lower than that.
“In terms of foreign reserves, in 2007, we had $47 billion. Today, I think we have $45 billion. It has not progressed, despite all the crude oil sales. The Excess Crude Account, in 2007, was $24 billion; today, we have $7 billion. If we talk of foreign debts, a very important thing, in 2007, we had zero per cent foreign debts; today, we are back to $9 billion and still borrowing..
“So, what are they celebrating? Five years later, we have gone backwards; we have not progressed. First of all, look at your foundation. Have you built on it? The answer is no. They have a foundation, a legacy which was a pretty good one.
“Whether you like (former President Olusegun) Obasanjo or not, if you look at his performance, it was excellent. The record speaks for itself. What did they do with it? Did they build on it? No! Everything has degenerated since then. I cannot be impressed with that and so we need a change. Let’s have new people in government,” Fani-Kayode said.
The politician, who recently dumped the PDP for the All Progressives Congress (APC), described his former party as a “sinking ship.”
Posted by: Augustine Avwode in News June 6, 2013. [myad]
Nigeria’s uncanny romance with ethnic militias got an official boost recently when two distinctly dodgy groups, with notorious antecedents of constant brushes with the law, emerged as the chief campaigners for both the sacking of the Independent National Electoral Commission boss, Attahiru Jega, and the reelection of President Goodluck Jonathan. As expected, due to their violent antecedents, both the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra and the Oodua Peoples Congress reportedly disturbed public peace in Awka, Anambra State and Lagos State respectively as they took to the streets to drive home their points.
What was striking about the incidents was the conduct of both groups during their demonstrations. While, in Awka, reports had it that MASSOB’s protest march was relatively peaceful in that people were not harassed, the same could not be said of the conduct of the OPC members in Lagos. They were armed and aggressive towards passers-by, mostly workers trying to beat the usual early morning rush to be at their duty posts. Clad mostly in T-shirts with the ruling Peoples Democratic Party inscriptions and President Goodluck Jonathan’s pictures on them, the Lagos protesters, who were interspersed with some Nollywood actors, also wielded weapons, namely guns, knives, machetes, cutlasses and broken bottles.
Although no record of death or injury that usually goes with such outings was recorded, it is however surprising that state security agents, who are often quick to disperse groups, even when the peaceful intent of their gathering is well known, did not so much as raise a finger against an armed group that constituted a public threat to peace. Rather, they gave the protesters armed protection, as they rolled out about 100 buses and held up traffic for hours on end.
A lot seems to point to the ominous nature of this unholy alliance between the President and groups such as the OPC and MASSOB. Barely two years ago, Jonathan had, in a mid-term report to mark the 2013 Democracy Day, told Nigerians, “The nation faces three fundamental security challenges posed by extremist groups like Boko Haram in the North, the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra in the South-East, and the Oodua Peoples Congress in the South-West.”
Notably, about a week after the groups marched in solidarity with the President, he has not come out to dissociate himself from them, which is not surprising as the rowdy demonstrators came in buses marked with his campaign banners. Perhaps, Nigerians should now believe that they have turned a new leaf and are no longer the same people he likened to Boko Haram just 22 months ago.
What happened in Awka and Lagos should not come as a complete surprise to those who are familiar with the run-up to elections in this country. During such periods, unscrupulous politicians hire and prop up groups, who are used to fight their battles for them. In many cases, such groups are armed with sophisticated weapons and are unleashed on election days to snatch ballot boxes and chase away voters. Little wonder that the two groups had listed, among their numerous grouses against Jega, the proposed employment of card readers during the upcoming elections.
With the new development, it will be difficult to dismiss reports that some of these militant groups had been pencilled in for multi-billion naira security contract awards by the Federal Government, probably to buy them over. In a recent report, the founder of the OPC, Frederick Fasehun, had confirmed that his company was among those being considered for the contracts. It could therefore mean that the outings are perhaps meant to potentially repay the compliment.
But it is also pertinent to cast our minds back to the recent security challenges the nation has been facing, which have been traced, in the main, to the inadvertent creation of violent groups by politicians for the purpose of winning elections. Once the elections are over, such groups suddenly lose their relevance, and are cast into the society to fend for themselves. People who are armed and had been used to being spoon-fed, suddenly have to look after themselves. It is only natural that they fall back on their arms for survival.
The result is the proliferation of violent crimes such as armed robbery, kidnapping and gang wars by groups seeking, in a mafia-like manner, to control areas for the purpose of extorting so-called protection fees. It has also been alleged that both the militancy in the Niger Delta and Boko Haram in the North-East of the country came about through this same means.
From the experience of trying to end militancy in the Niger Delta and Boko Haram in the North, it is clear that such outfits, once created, are usually difficult to eliminate. Under the threat of militants, Nigeria’s oil production quota of over two million barrels per day dropped to about 1.3 million bpd, as the militants sabotaged oil facilities and engaged the Nigerian military in a seemingly unending war of attrition. It was only an initiative of the late President Umaru Yar’Adua to grant the militants lavish cash awards, veiled as amnesty, that ended the insurgency and the bleeding of the economy.
In the case of the Boko Haram terrorists, it has become obvious that the Nigerian Army alone can no longer successfully dislodge the group, after six years of full-blown war has proved abortive in doing so. The country has only been able to make noted progress after going into alliances with her neighbours in Cameroon, Chad and Niger Republic.
If, without official funding, the two groups, the OPC and MASSOB, were deemed to be security threats, what could become of them when empowered with contracts can only be imagined. It is therefore important to sound a note of warning about that dangerous alliance. For now, people can only see the beginning; nobody knows how it will end.
This is Punch Editorial for March 23, 2015. [myad]
Fulani cattle breeders, under the aegis of The Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria (MACBAN) have dissociated the association from a reported endorsement of President Goodluck Jonathan saying that at no point did the association ever endorse anyone for the presidential election.
The MACBAN’s National Youth Leader, Adamu Mohammed, today in Kaduna after an emergency meeting of the group, declared the endorsement by a certain group by the name Miyetti Allah Kautal Hore of the PDP presidential candidate as null and void.
“After an emergency meeting of the Association in Kaduna at the weekend(Sunday), members of the association resolved to put it on record that an announcement by a certain group, who goes about with the name Miyetti Allah Kautal Hore, endorsing politicians, that it is different from our organisation, the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria.
“The Miyetti Allah Kautal Hore, led by one Alhaji Abdullahi Bello Bodejo, is a cultural organisation, which exists in only one state of the federation and therefore cannot speak on our behalf on any national issues because it is not representing all Fulani in the country.
“Therefore, we want to dissociate the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria from the statement credited to the Miyetti Allah Kautal Hore that it has endorsed certain political candidates for the forthcoming elections.”
According to the youth leader, the MACBAN couldn’t have been part of any endorsement since it is not a political association but “an organized group, whose aim and objectives are to protect the interest of Fulani all over the country and beyond.
“We want to put it on record that MACBAN is an association that has leadership, who are highly respected such as the His Eminence, the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Sa’ad Abubakar III, who is the Grand Patron; Emir of Kano, Emir of Zazzau, Lamido of Adamawa and Emir of Katsina as Board of Trustees members.”
The Deputy Governor of Rivers State, Tele Ikuru, has dumped the state’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to join the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Ikuru, who was one of Governor Rotimi Amaechi’s major ally, is said to have announced his defection in Port Harcourt, the state capital today.
The decampee was first elected deputy governor to Celestine Omehia in 2007, before the duo was removed by the Supreme Court less than six months in office. When Amaechi was sworn in as governor, he retained Ikuru as his deputy and the duo fought against the interests and allies of the former governor of the state, Peter Odili.
At the time Governor Amaechi fell out with the leadership of the PDP and defected to the APC with majority of his aides, Mr. Ikuru remained loyal to the governor and fought on the same side. A source from the Brick House, Port Harcourt, who pleaded not to be named because he is not authorised to speak on the matter said that Ikuru has left the APC.
“I can tell you that the deputy governor has defected to the PDP. He has already informed the governor about it and may soon address a press conference,” the source said.
Ikuru’s defection could further polarise the already volatile political situation in Rivers that has pitted loyalists of Mr. Amaechi against those of the PDP governorship candidate, Nyesom Wike, who himself is a former ally to the outgoing governor.
As Nigerians and the world wait for the March 28 presidential election and the 10 competing political parties putting finishing touches to their strategies, the actual contest, political watchers have submitted, is between the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
How would the scenario look like in the country’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, when the battle is fought, won and lost?
Abia
President Jonathan of the PDP is expected to win the presidential poll in Abia State as his party remains the dominant one there. The PDP’s strong base in the state coupled with the position of Governor Theodore Orji as the Coordinator of Jonathan’s Campaign Organisation in the South-East zone has further boosted Jonathan’s chances at the poll. Abia parades an army of people and accomplished Nigerians who are of the PDP family and they have been working assiduously to deliver their various localities to the President. Some of them include: Nigeria’s High Commissioner to Canada, Chief Ojo Maduekwe; former PDP National Chairman, Vincent Ogbulafor; former Senate President Adulphus Wabara; Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala; Gen. Ike Nwachukwu ( retd); among a host of others.
Jonathan’s marital tie with Abia State is also expected to boost his chances. The mother of the First Lady, Patience Jonathan, hailed from Abia and the state enjoys a very warm relationship with the First Family.
Abuja
Abuja, the seat of power, should ordinarily be the star on the crown of the eventual winner of the Presidential elections. However, the territory which some refer to as a city of civil servants is likely to be almost evenly split between Jonathan and Buhari.
Senator Philip Aduda (PDP) is expected to lead other public and political office holders to mobilise votes for the President because the FCT Minister, Senator Bala Mohammed; would be required to go back to Bauchi where he hails from to join the governor and the party’s national chairman, Adamu Mua’azu to campaign for the President. Aduda, however, has to contend with a former political opponent, Adamu Sidi-Ali, who apart from contesting for a Senate seat is also mobilising support for Buhari and the APC. That Abuja is where the President has lived for six years counts for a lot but the large number of northerners in the city is also a plus for Buhari. Verdict: It’s too close to call.
Adamawa
It is a state of political gladiators and all of them will want to make a point. The state boasts of ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the APC; Buhari’s wife; former Chairman of the PDP, Bamanga Tukur; ex-EFCC Chairman, Nuhu Ribadu, among others.
It would have been an easy ride for the PDP, but for the Boko Haram menace that has claimed many lives.
The opinion of political analysts in the state is that despite the successes recorded in Mubi and many other towns, many indigenes are not impressed because they believe that the President launched the late war on the insurgents to score a political point.
Hence, it looks like a tight race between Buhari and Jonathan despite the fact that PDP won the state in 2011.
Akwa Ibom
Both the PDP and the APC are popular in Akwa Ibom State. Each of these two political parties exercises dominance in some sections of the state.
The people of Oro ethnic nationality (the largest ethnic group in Akwa Ibom South Senatorial District with five local government areas) are mainly against the PDP.
The people, who embrace APC hold that if Oro continues to remain in the PDP, the probability for them to produce a governor in the next 40 years will be slim.
Other areas with strong support APC base are Uruan; Ibeno; Ikot Abasi; Esit Eket; Abak Federal Constituency otherwise known as Abak Five; Itu; Ini; Ikono. The party has also encroached into areas like Ikot Ekpene; Essien Udim, where the PDP has strongholds.
However, Governor Godswill Akpabio who is an ardent loyalist of Jonathan is expected to deliver the state to PDP coupled with the South-East support for Jonathan.
Anambra
In 2011, President Jonathan of the PDP polled 1,145,169 million votes or 98.8 per cent of the total votes cast in Anambra State.
From the statistics, Anambra gave Jonathan the highest proportion of votes in the country. His closest rival was the Congress Progressives Congress candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, who polled 4,223 votes.
The situation on the ground shows that Jonathan still has an edge over Buhari and will very likely win the presidential election in the state.
The sentiments that worked well for Jonathan in 2011 are still very much around. But the party has lost a lot of followers, who though may not move over to vote Buhari, may remain indifferent.
The factors playing in favour of Jonathan include the incumbency factor. The party in power in the state, the All Progressives Grand Alliance, has also adopted Jonathan as its presidential candidate.
This adds to the advantage of Jonathan being the official candidate of the biggest opposition party in the state.
Jonathan is likely to win but with a diminished margin as against the result in 2011 when he scored 98 per cent of the votes.
Bauchi
With the National Chairman of the PDP, Adamu Mu’azu, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Senator Bala Mohammed and Governor Isa Yuguda, President Jonathan should expect to garner a substantial number of votes or at least 25 per cent of the votes. However, this can only happen if the three resolve their differences and decide to work together. Buhari’s popularity among the ordinary folk in the state is unlikely to wane before the March 28 election. Buhari is most likely to carry the day.
Bayelsa
In Bayelsa, the home state of President Jonathan, it is almost a taboo to mention any other political party except the PDP.
The emergence of the rival opposition political party, the APC, has yet to change the people’s perception about the PDP. Also, the APC has yet to entrench itself as a formidable party in the state. Observers believe that in Bayelsa, the general election is fait accompli for the PDP as the party has formidable structures in the state compared to the APC and other political parties.
Benue
Here the two candidates’ chances stand at 55 per cent for Jonathan and 45 for Buhari. Though a PDP controlled state, the people of the state complain endlessly of non-payment of salaries which they say has been the bane of the government. The state is agrarian with a high dominance of civil servants in the elite class.
Having the civil servants objecting to any government spells near defeat for such administration. This is what has put the PDP on the path of declined popularity. However, Jonathan still stands slightly higher than Buhari in the reckoning of the people. Also, Senate President David Mark will want to make a good showing in his state.
Borno
In Borno, Buhari has been a political factor since the first day he declared his ambition to contest the presidency of Nigeria in 2007. He has always come first while his opponents, Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Yar’Adua and the current one, Jonathan, came a far second. He is idolised by the people of the state, it can even been said that he is more loved in the state than in his home state of Katsina because he lost there to Umaru Yar’Adua in 2007. He has never lost any election in Borno where he is seen as a role model and anyone that seeks political office has to come via him.
The love for Buhari was said to have started when he was the military governor in Maiduguri, which was the then capital of the North-East state and till date, he is still loved as if those days were moments away.
As it stands today, Buhari will get a landslide victory over Jonathan in Borno.
Cross River
In Cross River State, it is obvious where the pendulum will swing in the March 28 presidential election. This is so because it is one of the few states in the South-South region that is completely controlled by the PDP.
Candidates of the ruling party won the entire senatorial and House of Representatives seats in the 2011 election. The party also produced the governor and 24 out of 25 members of the state House of Assembly. It also has in its kitty, all the 18 Local Government Area chairmen and 196 councillors.
Apart from an almost overwhelming victory for the PDP presidential candidate, votes based on ethnic sentiment might also go in favour of President Jonathan because the electorate thinks that the two-term tenure of a candidate from the region must be upheld.
Delta
In Delta, President Jonathan stands head and shoulders above his closest rival, Buhari.
A number of factors are playing in favour of the President in the state and one of them is the fact that he is from the South-South geopolitical zone. The people of Delta, would rather vote their own than support someone else from another geopolitical zone.
According to Bunor Agbomedarho, a former banker and House of Assembly aspirant, the people of Delta State will not throw away their son for whatever reason. “He is from here and we will give it to him naturally,” he said.
In addition to that, the coastal areas of the state, where block votes usually emerge from to determine eventual winners of most of the presidential and governorship elections are peopled by Jonathan’s Ijaw ethnic group.
Apart from the ethnic factor, those who now control affairs in the coastal areas, fall among the ex-Niger Delta militants that have benefitted heavily from the Federal Government under Jonathan.
Another factor that plays in favour of Jonathan is the incumbent factor in Delta where his party, the PDP, is ruling.
Ebonyi
This is another South-East state where the PDP and its presidential candidate, Jonathan, have an edge over the opposition.
The attempt to impeach Governor Martins Elechi, who has a strong support at the grassroots, at some point threatened to undermine Jonathan’s re-election campaign in the state. There were indications that most of the governor’s supporters would have voted against the President in protest, had Elechi been impeached before the elections.
The dark cloud has, however, cleared after the Ebonyi State House of Assembly reportedly suspended the impeachment process.
Edo
Edo has a total of 1,779,738 registered voters. But the APC currently holds sway as the ruling party in Edo State, having defeated the PDP in the 2007 and 2012 governorship elections.
Like in other states in the South-South, ethnicity is considered a major factor, which would attract support for the PDP and Jonathan in the March 28 poll, as it did in 2011, when it secured the majority votes in the state, irrespective of the political parties.
Since the inception of the opposition party, Buhari has become seemingly popular across the state, compared to 2003, 2007 and 2011 presidential elections, where his campaigns were more pronounced in Auchi, an area largely dominated by Muslims. Also, Governor Adams Oshiomhole has a large following and can swing votes Buhari’s way. The Chairman of the APC, John Odigie-Oyegun, who is from the state will want to prove that he is a chairman indeed despite the political sagacity of Chief Tony Anenih who is a force to reckon with.
Ekiti
Events in Ekiti recently suggest a tilt in the balance between the popularity of the ruling PDP and the opposition APC. Although Governor Ayodele Fayose has continued to enjoy the support of the grassroots, it is observed these days that his large following in the state is fast depleting in ranks. This may not be unconnected with the squabbles over the primaries of the party conducted in December last year. The division in the State House of Assembly is also a minus for the PDP as the legislators who are anti-Fayose are not keen on getting their supporters to vote for Jonathan.
The opposition seems to be gathering momentum especially with the return of the governorship candidate of the Labour Party, Opeyemi Bamidele, to the APC.
Bamidele who declared support for Buhari has deployed his political platform, the Ekiti Bibire Coalition, for the mission.
The talk in town is that this general election is different from the governorship election when people mobilised and voted Fayose. It is a common trend to see people shouting ‘sai Buhari’ on the streets of Ado Ekiti.
Enugu
In Enugu, President Jonathan is expected to get more votes than Buhari and other presidential candidates.
This expectation is based on the fact that, among the 36 states in the country, Enugu is arguably one of the states where the PDP has the strongest followership.
There is hardly any prominent politician that is campaigning against Jonathan in Enugu at the moment — even some ‘aggrieved’ former PDP members who joined other political parties in order to realise their political ambitions in the 2015 polls are including the President’s pictures in their campaign posters.
The politicians with the largest support bases in the state are all campaigning for Jonathan — these include Governor Sullivan Chime, Deputy Senate President Ike Ekweremadu, former Senate President Ken Nnamani, and a former governor of old Anambra State, Chief Jim Nwobodo, among several others.
Gombe
This is likely to be one of the most keenly contested states in the North because just as General Buhari, enjoys a large following, the state Governor, Ibrahim Dankwambo, the Minister of Transportation, Senator Idris Umar and the Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the ruling PDP, Abdullahi Jalo, who are ardent supporters of President Jonathan, have a point to prove. They will be up against a former governor of the state, Senator Danjuma Goje who is a stalwart of the APC.
Imo
Like other South-East states, President Jonathan waxes strong in Imo. The fact that he has been adopted by main Igbo socio-cultural groups has made him stronger in this state. In Imo, it is Jonathan, even though Gov. Rochas Okorocha of the APC, who is the only South-East governor in the party, will want to show his might and popularity.
Jigawa
Here, there is an impressive followership for Buhari. Many political analysts have submitted that it would not be difficult for Buhari to coast home with victory in the state. However, Gov. Sule Lamido of the PDP will not allow himself to be put to shame.
President Jonathan is looking up to him to deliver the state and he will do everything not to disappoint the President. As a founding member of the PDP, he has a point to prove. Whether he can convince the northern electorate to vote for Jonathan remains to be seen.
Kaduna
This is the state of Vice-President Namadi Sambo, who the President expects to deliver the state. The Secretary of the PDP Board of Trustees, Senator Walid Jibrin, said, “It is the quality of crowd that matters in a rally.”
It was a veiled reference to the scanty crowd of supporters that greeted the PDP Presidential Campaign Train to Kaduna State on January 31,2015.
In that rally, the main bowl of the Ahmadu Bello Stadium, was half-filled, thereby sending signals that President Jonathan may find winning the 2015 presidential race, in the state difficult.
But Jibrin allayed the fears as according to him, the PDP as a party believed in a ‘quality crowd’ and not ‘quantity’ which, he argued, characterised the opposition APC presidential campaign.
However, the antagonistic disposition of the people of Northern Kaduna zone, who are pre-dominantly Muslims, will certainly work against the President and be an advantage to the APC candidate. But, Jonathan may get votes from the southern part of the state, a predominantly Christian dominated area. This area has consistently voted en bloc for the PDP since 1999. Buhari won the state with 1.3 million votes in 2011.
Kano
It is an open secret that the presidential candidate of the APC has his strongest support base in the North.
Even before the defection of Kano State governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, from the PDP to the APC, most of the eligible voters in Kano were ardent Buhari loyalists.
A lot of factors appear to be working in Buhari’s favour in the state. The PDP is yet to deal with its internal conflicts while the state governor, and a majority of members of the National Assembly members are members of the APC. The emergence of Lamido Sanusi Lamido as the Emir of Kano seemed to have sealed Jonathan’s fate. The Emir is not a fan of Jonathan and he doesn’t hide it.
It will be safe to say, Buhari will beat Goodluck Jonathan.
Katsina
There is no lenghty expalanation for this. Charity, they say, begins at home. The home state of Buhari is overwhelmingly for him. Though the state is ruled by the PDP, the residents are not leaving their own unsupported.
Kebbi
Carved out from the old Sokoto State, this state has produced governors and members of the National Assembly from both the ruling party and the opposition. It started off as an ANPP state in 1999 but has been under the control of the PDP since 2007. The turmoil within the state chapter of the PDP is likely to cost the party and its candidates dearly. Even without such a conflict, the Buhari phenomenon which has swept most parts of the North is unlikely to change there.
Kogi
In Kogi, the contest according to political observers will be a keen one.The state has been ruled by the PDP for the 16 years of the current democratic dispensation. Though there had been attempts to wrest power from the PDP in the state, such had so far proved futile making the party to record either substantial or landslide victories during elections.
But the scenario appears to be changing with the reported defection of some political juggernauts from the ruling PDP to the APC.
Also with the reported inroad of Buhari into the minds of many people in the northern states, and Kogi being a state near Abuja appears to be catching the bug.
It may not be quite easy for one to accurately predict whether Jonathan or Buhari will convincingly win in Kogi in the March 28 presidential election given the political dynamism of voting, but that Jonathan won there in 2011 is a plus.
Kwara
The PDP had lost the Kwara State to the APC following the defection of former Governor Bukola Saraki and his followers. Those who defected with him to the APC included another former governor and who is also now a senator, Mr. Shaaba Lafiagi; all the members of the House of Representatives, the current state governor, Mr. Abdulfatah Ahmed and his political appointees; the Speaker, Kwara State House of Assembly and 19 other legislators.
While Saraki and his followers give the impression that the APC will trounce the PDP, it may not be that easy because of alleged federal might and the perception that Kwara residents are yearning for a change from an alleged Saraki oligarchy.
Buhari is, however, expected to coast home with about 70 per cent of the total votes cast.
Lagos
The APC candidate is tipped to win the election in the state based on the fact that it is the stronghold of the major opposition party since 1999. According to political watchers, even though the ruling party, the PDP, won the presidential poll in the state in 2003 (the main opposition party did not field any presidential candidate that year), 2007 and 2011, the political dynamics had since changed.
Although Buhari is from the North, he is expected to win the state under the platform of APC also because his deputy, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo is Yoruba. The choice of Osinbajo has been a hit in the South-West states. Lagos is also home to Senator Bola Tinubu, the national leader of the APC and of course Governor Babatunde Fashola one of the highest rated governors in the country.
Recently, the PDP Governors Forum at its meeting in Lagos said the party would win elections in all the states in the South including Lagos.
Overall, Buhari is expected to win Lagos on Saturday.
Nasarawa
While many may have concluded that Nasarawa State is for Buhari, a political analyst who pleaded anonymity in an interview with SUNDAY PUNCH in Lafia, said: “The only thing that might affect the chances of the presidential candidate of Buhari, in the state is the inability of his party to handle the recent crisis that engulfed it in some part of the state in recent times.”
Though controlled by the APC, Jonathan won by 408,997 votes in 2011. The PDP has also suffered major cracks in the state that might affect its chances on March 28.
Niger
The presence of two former Heads of State, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida and Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar who are reportedly opposed to a Buhari government will make the state a tough one for APC to conquer. It is controlled by the PDP even though it is on record that President Jonathan has never won outrightly there. Also, Governor Babangida Aliyu who wants to run for President in 2019 sees this election as a litmus test. However, Buhari won Niger in 2011 and this is significant.
Ogun
In Ogun, the ruling APC has engaged in robust campaigns across the 20 local government areas and the 236 wards. And the campaign has always been led by the state governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun.
The APC presidential candidate, Buhari, has more following than the governor, though. The emergence of Prof. Yemi Osinbajo as APC vice-presidential candidate, who is from the state has been termed a ‘technical knockout.’
The three-day warning strike by the civil servants under the Joint National Negotiating Council, has affected the rating of the governor.
However, Buhari’s touted aura, integrity and upright lifestyle are working for him in the state. The artisans, taxi drivers, and many market women are rooting for him.
With this going on, the PDP is struggling to patch up the cleavages created by the power blocs in the party. There is the Buruji Kashamu camp working in tandem with the Adebayo Dayo-led state executive of the PDP; the former Speaker Dimeji Bankole’s camp and another power bloc, Jubri Martins-Kuye.
These political cleavages had really polarised the party, and slowed down its wheel of progress.
Ondo
Before the rescheduling of the election, there were obvious signs that Jonathan might lose the polls.
Jonathan, at his campaign rally, faced with the obvious facts of PDP’s house in disarray, raised the alarm, warning that the raging conflict could cost the party the much needed victory at the polls.
When he visited the state, Buhari’s change message was brief to Ondo citizens who thronged the Democracy Park and waited patiently for his arrival. Buhari’s following remains unprecedented in the history of the state since he started his quest for Aso Rock in 2003. The whirl of supporters sent jitters down the spine of the PDP, an ally of the Labour Party. But, time, seems to be turning things around for the PDP, with an additional six weeks, the party has taken the campaign to a new level, going great lengths to weigh down the opposition. Hence, Buhari and Jonathan may be in a neck-and-neck race.
Osun
The presidential election in Osun State is a straight fight between President Jonathan and Buhari but Governor Rauf Aregbesola’s stake in the poll is probably higher than that of other state governors especially in the South-West.
However, the PDP is coming up stronger with the earlier postponement of the polls and declining popularity of the APC among the civil servants and lecturers of the state due to the non-payment of their five months salaries and issues with non-remittance of their pension deductions.
The visit of Jonathan to some monarchs in the state has been described as a good strategy to sway more people’s support to his side during the presidential poll.
But, most of the notable politicians in the state are in the APC and this makes Buhari’s job very easy among voters.
Oyo
With two weeks to the former date of the presidential election, the Buhari presidential campaign train hit Ibadan on January 29 with unarguably more than a million people trooping to the venue of the campaign on Mapo Hill.
But with the six weeks extension, Jonathan has succeeded in bringing all the former PDP politicians together under his fold with the help of Governor Olusegun Mimiko. The list includes another former governor in the state, Rashidi Ladoja of the Accord Party, Adebayo Alao-Akala of the labour Party and Seyi Makinde of the Social Democratic Party. They do not have to leave their new parties; all they were asked to do is to support the presidential ambition of President Jonathan while they can afterwards pursue their individual political ambitions.
It is important to note that Buhari may not poll the huge votes that he would have recorded if the election had been held on February 14, 2015.
Plateau
In Plateau, though the majority of the people may want to loathe the PDP candidate, President Jonathan, they are not for his APC counterpart, Buhari, either.
The reasons may not be farfetched. Plateau has been a traditional PDP state and the people have voted overwhelmingly for the party in the 2011 presidential elections. Indeed, the PDP garnered over one million votes from Plateau then. But the reality is not so today as the party could well be struggling to get the required 25 per cent. Governor Jonah Jang, who is the leader of a faction of the PDP Govenors’ Forum, has the task of delivering the state to Jonathan. Hence, it is not clear if Buhari can pull off any magic.
Rivers
It is a tough call between Jonathan and Buhari in Rivers State as both are popular and they will likely share the votes. Any of them who wins in the state will not do so with a wide margin. Analysts have, however, given it to President Jonathan though it will not be in a landslide like in 2011 when he got about two million votes. This is because the APC has gained a lot of ground in the state.
President Jonathan may win in Rivers as a result of the sentiment that the PDP presidential candidate is from the Niger Delta. Voting along ethnic and religious lines will be pronounced in the state during the presidential poll. The Patience Jonathan factor cannot be ignored. She and Governor Amaechi, who also has a large following, have drawn the battle line and many cannot wait to see the result. The popularity of the PDP governorship candidate, Nyesom Wike, will also be tested.
Sokoto
The seat of the caliphate as it chooses to be called is unmistakably one of the strongholds of the APC in the forthcoming presidential elections. The state started off under the control of the now defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party. So strong was its influence that the PDP had to ask its then flag bearer, Murktari Shagari, to hand his ticket over to Aliyu Wammako who was then candidate of the ANPP to stand for the 2007 elections.
During the PDP primaries of 2011, party delegates from the state voted massively for Atiku Abubakar, when he failed to get the ticket, they cast their votes for Buhari who stood on the platform of little known Congress for Progressives Change. The fact that the National Security Adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki (retd) hails from the state is unlikely to change anything.
The APC governorship candidate, Aminu Tambuwal, who is also the Speaker of the House of Representatives has a huge following in the state.
It’s Buhari.
Taraba
Predominantly Christian, this is another state where it’s tough to predict who will win. The christian factor will be working for Jonathan. However, the northern factor is working for Buhari as northerners feel that they must not fail to seize this opportunity to elect their own. Jonathan won here in 2011. However, PDP is not as strong as it used to be in the state.
Yobe
This is one of the few states that have never fallen into the hands of the ruling party at the centre since 1999. Just like Borno, Yobe has remained the stronghold of opposition politics at all levels.
During his tenure as the military governor of the state state before he was moved to the Ministry of Petroleum in 1976, Buhari built bridges beyond his native Katsina State and perhaps that is his greatest strength today. The people of Yobe State have continuously queued behind him and no matter the strength of his opponent, they have never shifted ground. Even when the governor of the state then, Bukar Abba Ibrahim, tagged Buhari a political liability without shelf value, the people of Yobe were proud to be associated with him.
Hence, in Yobe, it is Buhari.
Zamfara
Zamfara, like Yobe and Borno states, has remained one of the few states in northern Nigeria which is the traditional playground of the opposition. This has remained so even when a one-time governor of the state, Mamuda Shinkafi defected from the then ANPP to join the PDP. His decision to dump the ANPP to join the PDP at the centre did not save him from electoral defeat. When it comes to the question of the presidential election, irrespective of party affiliation, the people appear united in their support for Buhari.
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Jonathan’s Dangerous Alliance With OPC, MASSOB
Nigeria’s uncanny romance with ethnic militias got an official boost recently when two distinctly dodgy groups, with notorious antecedents of constant brushes with the law, emerged as the chief campaigners for both the sacking of the Independent National Electoral Commission boss, Attahiru Jega, and the reelection of President Goodluck Jonathan. As expected, due to their violent antecedents, both the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra and the Oodua Peoples Congress reportedly disturbed public peace in Awka, Anambra State and Lagos State respectively as they took to the streets to drive home their points.
What was striking about the incidents was the conduct of both groups during their demonstrations. While, in Awka, reports had it that MASSOB’s protest march was relatively peaceful in that people were not harassed, the same could not be said of the conduct of the OPC members in Lagos. They were armed and aggressive towards passers-by, mostly workers trying to beat the usual early morning rush to be at their duty posts. Clad mostly in T-shirts with the ruling Peoples Democratic Party inscriptions and President Goodluck Jonathan’s pictures on them, the Lagos protesters, who were interspersed with some Nollywood actors, also wielded weapons, namely guns, knives, machetes, cutlasses and broken bottles.
Although no record of death or injury that usually goes with such outings was recorded, it is however surprising that state security agents, who are often quick to disperse groups, even when the peaceful intent of their gathering is well known, did not so much as raise a finger against an armed group that constituted a public threat to peace. Rather, they gave the protesters armed protection, as they rolled out about 100 buses and held up traffic for hours on end.
A lot seems to point to the ominous nature of this unholy alliance between the President and groups such as the OPC and MASSOB. Barely two years ago, Jonathan had, in a mid-term report to mark the 2013 Democracy Day, told Nigerians, “The nation faces three fundamental security challenges posed by extremist groups like Boko Haram in the North, the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra in the South-East, and the Oodua Peoples Congress in the South-West.”
Notably, about a week after the groups marched in solidarity with the President, he has not come out to dissociate himself from them, which is not surprising as the rowdy demonstrators came in buses marked with his campaign banners. Perhaps, Nigerians should now believe that they have turned a new leaf and are no longer the same people he likened to Boko Haram just 22 months ago.
What happened in Awka and Lagos should not come as a complete surprise to those who are familiar with the run-up to elections in this country. During such periods, unscrupulous politicians hire and prop up groups, who are used to fight their battles for them. In many cases, such groups are armed with sophisticated weapons and are unleashed on election days to snatch ballot boxes and chase away voters. Little wonder that the two groups had listed, among their numerous grouses against Jega, the proposed employment of card readers during the upcoming elections.
With the new development, it will be difficult to dismiss reports that some of these militant groups had been pencilled in for multi-billion naira security contract awards by the Federal Government, probably to buy them over. In a recent report, the founder of the OPC, Frederick Fasehun, had confirmed that his company was among those being considered for the contracts. It could therefore mean that the outings are perhaps meant to potentially repay the compliment.
But it is also pertinent to cast our minds back to the recent security challenges the nation has been facing, which have been traced, in the main, to the inadvertent creation of violent groups by politicians for the purpose of winning elections. Once the elections are over, such groups suddenly lose their relevance, and are cast into the society to fend for themselves. People who are armed and had been used to being spoon-fed, suddenly have to look after themselves. It is only natural that they fall back on their arms for survival.
The result is the proliferation of violent crimes such as armed robbery, kidnapping and gang wars by groups seeking, in a mafia-like manner, to control areas for the purpose of extorting so-called protection fees. It has also been alleged that both the militancy in the Niger Delta and Boko Haram in the North-East of the country came about through this same means.
From the experience of trying to end militancy in the Niger Delta and Boko Haram in the North, it is clear that such outfits, once created, are usually difficult to eliminate. Under the threat of militants, Nigeria’s oil production quota of over two million barrels per day dropped to about 1.3 million bpd, as the militants sabotaged oil facilities and engaged the Nigerian military in a seemingly unending war of attrition. It was only an initiative of the late President Umaru Yar’Adua to grant the militants lavish cash awards, veiled as amnesty, that ended the insurgency and the bleeding of the economy.
In the case of the Boko Haram terrorists, it has become obvious that the Nigerian Army alone can no longer successfully dislodge the group, after six years of full-blown war has proved abortive in doing so. The country has only been able to make noted progress after going into alliances with her neighbours in Cameroon, Chad and Niger Republic.
If, without official funding, the two groups, the OPC and MASSOB, were deemed to be security threats, what could become of them when empowered with contracts can only be imagined. It is therefore important to sound a note of warning about that dangerous alliance. For now, people can only see the beginning; nobody knows how it will end.
This is Punch Editorial for March 23, 2015. [myad]