There used to be the time in the past where people looked forward to “tomorrow” with hope and expectation of bountiful things. Those were the days when people were comforted with soothing word: “tomorrow will be better.” As a matter of fact, those were the days when the youths would be comforted with the word: “youths are the leaders of tomorrow.”
It has continued to be clear from about two decades now that the tomorrow has at every turn, became a nightmare, hopeless and fearful.
Just recently, I engaged with some concerned Nigerians in review of the socioeconomic situation of the country, and the painful conclusion we arrived at was that each government, from Olusegun Obasanjo’s civilian government since the beginning of the fourth Republic in 1999, had turned out to be better than the one that succeeded it. In other words, citizens would go out to vote the leader they thought would better their lives over and above the one that was exiting only to end up in direct opposite.
Without imputing any personal bias, it’s been clear that Nigerians enjoyed the good side of governance, irrespective of the circumstances, during Obasanjo’s regime more than the period of late Umoru Yar’Adua/Goodluck Jonathan regime, leading to the current leadership of Bola Tinubu.
Let’s take it one after the other:
When Olusegun Obasanjo assumed office as civilian President in 1999, his government was able to restore democratic institutions, secure debt relief from the Paris Club and stabilize the economy to some extent. Yet, many ordinary Nigerians still faced poverty, unemployment and inadequate infrastructure. So, while there was hope, the benefits were unevenly distributed.
Then came Umoru Musa Yar’Adua, whose regime placed emphasis on the rule of law and electoral reform. His administration also initiated the Niger Delta amnesty program, which reduced militancy in the oil-rich region. However, his subsequent ill health limited the impact of his policies and therefore, the systemic issues persisted.
The tenure of Goodluck Jonathan saw economic growth. Nigeria even rebased its GDP to become Africa’s largest economy at the time. But still, insecurity, especially the rise of Boko Haram, corruption allegations and weak infrastructure eroded public confidence. Many citizens began to feel that growth figures did not translate into real improvements in daily life of the citizens.
When Muhammadu Buhari came into power, tall hope was built by the impoverished citizens. They thought that stage was set for them to gain back the country they had always dreamt of. Buhari came in promising to tackle corruption and insecurity amongst others. While there were efforts such as the introduction of Treasury Single Account and social investment programs, the country experienced economic recession, rising inflation and worsening insecurity in various regions. For many Nigerians, hope began to give way to anxiety about safety and economic survival. The bitter experience of poverty was in many homes.
The current administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu introduced what have largely been called “economic reforms.” The father of the reforms were fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification. Economists agreed that such reforms are necessary long-term corrections, but that in the short term, they have brought about higher living costs, untold rise in fuel prices for simple domestic shuttles and deepening hardship for many citizens, intensifying the feeling of uncertainty.
The question is “has the hope of Nigerians turned into a reverse gear, breeding, instead of “better tomorrow” but” “fearful of tomorrow?”
The persistent gap between government promises and the reality of the living conditions of the citizens, marked by poverty, insecurity, unemployment and inflation, has steadily eroded trust. The worsening tomorrow for the citizens has, in deed, been largely as a result of governance challenges, which have to do with weak institutions, corruption, policy inconsistencies and rapid population growth that is not matched with economic expansion.
In short, Nigeria’s story since 1999, though has not been one of total decline or total progress, but has been a mix of gains and much more, disappointments, where hope has repeatedly risen with each new administration (through mere promises), only for such promised hope to be dashed by enduring structural challenges. There is stubborn insincerity of leadership to admit that the situation is not what it is supposed to be.
Analysts have actually ran down statistics on what should be the common denominators of good governance to average common Nigerians. After juxtaposing the pros and cons of the previous governments, they arrive at a dismal conclusion that so far, Tinubu’s government, after about three years in the saddle, presents indices of failure – to provide simple basic necessities of comfort for the citizens over whose affairs he presides.
Such common denominators of what the common man regard as good governance are the prices of basic food items, prices of other things needed for simple everyday survival and security, amongst others.
For example, from 1999 to 2007 (Obasanjo’s era), price of fuel was between ₦20 and ₦70 per litre and it rose to between N65 and N87 per litre during the regime of Umoru Yar’Adua and Goodluck Jonathan. Attempted subsidy removal in 2012 briefly pushed the price to ₦141 per liter, but reversed after protests.
With Buhari in charge between 2015 and 2023, the nation’s tomorrow got worse with the price of fuel rising to ₦145 in 2016 and ₦210 in 2023.
Then came Bola Tinubu with Renewed Hope mantra. Because of abrupt removal of fuel subsidy, the price of fuel rose to about N1,300 per liter as at today.
With the removal of fuel subsidy, prices of virtually all things on the surface of Nigerian earth jumped through the roof.
From Jonathan era when price of rice, for example, was about ₦7,500 per bag to Buhari era when it rose to ₦55,000 as at 2023, when Tinubu took over to the present it is N80,000. All through, it has been, for the citizens, a walk into the dark tomorrow.
Remember that Nigerians were buying pepper at ₦21,000 per basket during Buhari era. They were hoping that when tomorrow came, the price would hopefully go down, only for tomorrow to come in 2023 with Tinubu in charge and the price jumped to ₦175,000. Prices of every other thing from cost of transportation, children school fees, clothes, soft drinks, water and other conceivable items rose beyond the imagination of any sane economist.
Inflation climbed between 15 and 20 percent during Buhari government but surged close to 35 percent in 2024.
Before 2023, transport was relatively predictable because subsidy cushioned the effects of skyrocket prices on the citizens, but after 2023, transport fares surged sharply, most time at 1000 percent. For example, the cost of filling the tank of Spacebus (Seana) as at February 2023 (before the coming to Tinubu in May that year) was N13,000, but today, to fill the same tank with one would have to cough out about N125,000.
Many Nigerians have reduced movement due to cost of transportation. Drivers who use their vehicles for commercial purpose lament daily because they usually don’t have money to take back home for the family after the day’s runs. Fuel take all the money they make. What type of tomorrow would such drivers say they brought onto themselves?
The scale and speed of price increases under Tinubu are much higher, largely due to structural reforms, including subsidy removal and currency changes without pre-planning for cushioning the effects of such.
To make the already dangerous trend worst, Tinubu’s government defied all basic economic reasonings to introduce taxes on all manner of basic things needed by the citizens to enjoy some kind of minimal survival.
The question really is: have Nigerians any hope (that word again) that tomorrow will still be better after the 2027 general election, irrespective of who mounts the gauntlet? Or will an advance version of hopelessness surface… again?
