Court of Appeal has granted the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) permission to reconfigure its Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) for the Saturday, March 11 Governorship and State Assemblies elections.
A three-member panel of the appellate court , led by Justice Joseph Ikyegh, today, March 8, granted leave to the applicant for the purposes of configuring the BVAS for the election on Saturday. The panel however, asked INEC to upload data to back-end server and make true Certified copy to the respondents. INEC, in its motion, filed on March 4, asked the appellate court to vary the ex parte order made in favour of Labour Party and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), with regards to inspection of materials used for the presidential election. The appellate court had on March 3, granted leave to Atiku Abubakar of the PPD and Peter Obi of Labour Party to inspect election materials used by INEC to conduct the Feb. 25 presidential election. The court granted the duo permission following two separate ex parte applications filed by Atiku and Obi, who came second and third respectively in the presidential election won by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC). The commission is asking the court to vary the order to allow it to reconfigure its Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) for the March 11 governorship and state houses of assembly elections. Counsel to INEC, Tanimu Inuwa , SAN said the application became necessary following an order restraining it from tampering with the information embedded in the BVAS machines until due inspection was conducted and Certified. He added that the commission would require sufficient time to reconfigure the BVAS needed to conduct the election that would take place on Saturday. He told the court that INEC would upload from back-end. In his argument, counsel for Obi, Dr Onyechi Ikpeazu , SAN prayed the court not to grant INEC’s application for granting it would mean losing the original information there. ”All we are seeking is for a physical inspection of the BVAS so that the evidence is obtained before it will be configured ” he told the court. He therefore, opposed INEC application and urged the court not to grant it. The three man panel of the appellate court after listening to their submissions adjourned until Wednesday for ruling. Source: NAN.
A member of the British House of Lords, when told that money is difficult to come by these days, said he is nearly 90 years old but cannot remember any time in the past when money was easy to get. I have been watching Nigerian elections since 1979 and I cannot remember a time when those who lost the election did not allege rigging and intimidation. For a time, there was hope that President Goodluck Jonathan’s 2015 concession phone call could become the norm in Nigeria. It now looks like it was a one-off event. Instead, it was Godsday Orubebe’s 2015 attempt to storm INEC’s National Collation Centre that has endured, with Dino Melaye attempting a poor carbon copy in 2023. The young men and women who are saying on social media that the 2023 election was full of rigging and intimidation, have no personal knowledge of the golden age of rigging and intimidation in Nigerian elections. In this election I saw no reports in the media of thugs snatching ballot boxes and stuffing them. I saw no reports of security agents cordoning off whole polling stations while ballot boxes were being stuffed. There was no story of soldiers scattering voters in any place. Where is the mother of all rigging, when Supreme Court ruled in 1983 that UPN’s Bisi Onabanjo got 1.2million votes, NPN’s Akin Omoboriowo got 500,000 votes but the returning officer added 1 behind the figure and it became N1.5million? This year, the President did not declare the election a do or die. I saw no story of armed hooded security agents descending on a state, as in Ekiti in 2014. There was no story of an opposition governor’s plane denied landing rights at any airport. In 2023, we didn’t have a Police Commissioner Mbu denying an opposition party governor entry into his own Government House. Pray, where in Nigeria in 2023 did we have Police Commissioner Tahir Jidda denying Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe entry into Maiduguri and firing tear gas at Zik, even though Borno State Governor Muhammadu Goni stood beside him? Even the party primaries of last year lacked drama, because we saw nothing like the Babalawo who tried to enter the UPN state congress in Ibadan in 1983 with a live tortoise strapped to his waist. Another youngster wrote on social media that “this generation of Nigerian politicians do not know how to concede, unlike the older generation.” Sorry sir, they actually copied it from the older generation. In 1979, as soon as election results started trickling in, we saw GNPP leader Waziri Ibrahim dashing around to see UPN leader Chief Awolowo and NPP leader Dr. Azikiwe. The three of them, minus PRP leader Aminu Kano who refused to join, appeared together before pressmen, rejected the election results and alleged rigging, even though it was an election conducted by a military government, not like now when APC controls the Federal Government [at least, it used to]. The scene was re-enacted last week when PDP and LP running mates held a joint press conference and tried to present a common front, a case of locking the stables after the horses have bolted. Anyone who trusts such emergency political alliances has another thing coming. In 1979 the opposition parties presented us with a common front up until the Supreme Court upheld the election result. To our utmost surprise, just before Inauguration on October 1, 1979, NPN and NPP announced an accord where they shared legislative and executive posts between them. NPP got Deputy Senate President, House Speaker and several Cabinet posts, including Zik’s running mate Prof Ishaya Audu who became Foreign Minister, Mrs. Janet Akinrinade of Oyo and Paul Unongo of Benue. Who knows now if someone is negotiating under the table? Our local and social media activists who are trying very hard to impress foreign election observers and the Western press by citing scattered incidents of election day problems knowing that White people are sticklers for procedure. They insist on correct procedure even if it produces an undesirable outcome. We Africans, who are wiser, usually walk back from the answer to the question. Our politicians’ measure of the credibility of an election is if they win, not whether or not the procedure was followed. If they don’t win, then the election is not credible. The general African attitude to elections is that the outcome justifies the process. The credible outcome, in African eyes, is usually when the incumbent ruler or party is defeated. Hence, to most Africans, the best elections ever held in Africa were when Morgan Tsvangirai’s party defeated Robert Mugabe’s; when Adama Barrow defeated Yahaya Jammeh in Gambia; when Mohammed Morsi triumphed in Egypt against Hosni Mubarak’s premier; when Jerry Rawlings’ party was defeated in Ghana; when Macky Sall defeated Abdoulaye Wade in Senegal; when Wade himself earlier defeated Abdou Diouf; when Alassane Ouattara defeated Laurent Gbagbo in Ivory Coast; and more recently, when William Ruto triumphed in Kenya despite outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta’s support for Raila Odinga. African style, let us walk backwards from the result to the credibility question. First, the voter turnout. There were 87 million voters with PVCs in 2023 election but only 24 million voted, or 27%. Now, the starting point of rigging elections is to take advantage of the number of registered voters. Why leave 63 million blank names on the register if you really desire to rig up results? There is no doubt that the technological innovations adopted over the years greatly helped to clean up our elections. Up until 2007, those absent voters will simply have their votes cast for them by a coalition of party agents, election officials and security officers. The winner of this election, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, got only 37% of the vote, down from the 56% that Buhari got in 2019. Now, while 2019 was a two-horse race between the APC and PDP candidates, 2023 was at least a four-horse race between APC, PDP, LP and NNPP candidates. It was the first time since 2007 that we had more than two major candidates in a presidential election and the first time since 1983 that we had up to four major candidates in such a race. The top four candidates in this election got 37%, 29%, 25% and 6% respectively. This compares closely with 1979 when Shagari got 34%, Awo got 29%, Zik got 16%, Aminu Kano got 10.28 and Waziri Ibrahim got 10%. The top three runners up in this race got a combined 60% of the vote. That is impressive, but then, they only have themselves to blame that they did not present a united front before the election. They only tried to present a united front to contest the results. It is a case of locking the stables after the horses have bolted. Would they have made 60% of the vote if they had united behind a single candidate? Nobody will ever know the answer for certain. Tinubu’s party went into this election controlling the Federal and 21 state governments. In the event, he won only 12 states outright. PDP’s Atiku Abubakar also won 12 states, LP’s Peter Obi won 12 states outright [FCT included] while NNPP’s Kwankwaso won outright in one state. So how did Tinubu win the race? Simple. The number of states that a candidate wins outright is important. Equally important is the number of states in which he came second. Also very important is, if he came second with only a narrow margin in most of them. Tinubu won 12 states outright [Zamfara, Jigawa, Borno, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Ekiti, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo and Rivers]. He came second in 19 states [Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Katsina, Kano, Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe, Taraba, Nasarawa, Plateau, Adamawa, Osun, Lagos, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Edo, Imo and Ebonyi]. In many cases the margins of loss were very small, only 3,000 votes in Sokoto, 12,000 in Katsina and equally narrow margins in Osun and Lagos. Very important, Tinubu came second to Kwankwaso in Kano, second to Atiku in most of the states the latter won and second to Obi in Lagos, Ebonyi, Imo and Edo. This was exactly how Alhaji Shehu Shagari won the presidency in 1979. He won outright in nine states out of 19 [Sokoto, Kaduna, Niger, Bauchi, Gongola, Benue, Kwara, Rivers and Cross River.] He won in Kaduna and Gongola even though his party lost the governorship elections there two weeks earlier, what in those days was called “the bandwagon effect.” Of the remaining ten states in Nigeria at the time, Shagari came second in 9 [Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Bendel, Anambra, Imo, Borno, Plateau and Kano]. Shagari came third only in Lagos, after Awo and Zik. Like Shagari, like Tinubu; you are victorious if your party is either first or second in almost every state. Allegations that APC rigged the election also falls flat because it lost the biggest states, namely Lagos, Kaduna, Kano and Katsina, even though all of them have APC state governors, all of whom are staunchly loyal to Tinubu. In terms of vote banks, what is Imo, Edo or Adamawa to these states? Why should anyone go rigging elections in some small states when he could rig up figures in the biggest ones and win by a large margin? If they could help it, why should ten APC governors, APC National Chairman and Director General of the APC campaign suffer the embarrassment of failing to deliver their states?
Why should Tinubu himself suffer the embarrassment of failing to win outright in Lagos, long alleged to be his political fiefdom? Allegations that APC rigged these polls do not hold the water of logic. But those making them still have the chance to prove them at the election tribunals. Onabanjo managed to prove rigging even in the olden days of analogue collation. It is easier to do so in this age of electronic collation, if indeed rigging took place.
The Managing Director of Galaxy Backbone (GBB), Professor Muhammad Abubakar has said that the Federal Government blocked over 200 cyberattacks during the Presidential and National Assembly elections held on February 25, 2023.
Abubakar spoke today, March 7, in Abuja at the opening session of a two-day Ministerial Training for GBB’s Board members and Management staffers.
He said: “on the election day alone, we were able to block more than 200 attacks and the next day, the attacks geometrically increased to about 1.2 million and all were blocked from our own businesses.”
He said that the business continuity and cyberspace protection committee was formed to guard and regulate digital activities while optimising the GBB’s Technical Services.
Abubakar said that the training is aimed at reviewing the agency’s performance while initiating alternative means of revenue generation.
The training is tagged: “Positioning the GBB Team for Effective Management and Leadership in the 4th Industrial Revolution.”
This was even as the Minister of Communication and Digital Economy, Professor Isa Pantami said that the training is aimed at evaluating and recalibrating the Galaxy Backbone Limited in regards to management and leadership for optimal outputs.
Pantami, who served as the training facilitator, applauded GBB’s approach to digital Infrastructural development while saving the cost of governance.
“In this training, I will be very much sincere with you to point out some areas where we need significant improvement.
“Training is key when it comes to improving our performance and at the same time training is key when it comes to our self-evaluation, self-judgement, self-assessment.
“We need to think out of the box to discover new areas for government revenue generation.
“We need to be proactive in our thinking, let us not maintain the same process every day when it comes to revenue generation.”
The ministry had on February 23, inaugurated a committee for cyberspace and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructure protection ahead of the 2023 general elections.
Veteran actor, Pete Edochie, has said that he is not happy as he clocks 76-year-old today, because of the fact that he could not go to the bank to withdraw his money.
In a video shared on his Instagram page, Edochie said: “I’m 76 today and thank God who has brought me thus far. I should be happy today but I’m not because I can’t go to the bank to withdraw money which belongs to me and was told it’s for my own good.
“I can’t go to the filling station and buy fuel for my car, again must be for my own good. Electricity has been epileptic and has even now become worse.
“Elections manifest themselves as selection and tried to find out why but no one offered any explanation, so I said to myself, ‘Pete, it must be for your own good’.”
Pete Edochie expressed a grievance in the video caption: “I have observed the events in our Nation for the past few weeks as it unfolds and I have chosen a special day like my 76th year on earth to address that in few words.”
A Coalition of All Progressives Congress (APC) Support Groups under the aegis of APC National Patriots is prodding the leadership of the party and the Senators-elect to unanimously elect the most ranking Senator from the South East, Dr. Orji Uzor Kalu as the next President of the red chamber of the National Assembly.
Uzor Kalu has also been the Senate Chief Whip and representing Abia North Senatorial Zone.
The Coordinator of the group, Musa Uba, in a statement today, March 7, said that with the victory of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as President-elect and Senator Kashim Shettima from the South-West and North-East respectively, the leadership of the party should zone the position of the Senate Presidency to the South East Zone.
The group, which consists of notable members of the APC who worked for the victory of the party in the Presidential polls, said that the nation would need a dynamic, visionary, stable and purposeful National Assembly that will complement Asiwaju Tinubu’s plans to deliver on the Renewed Hope Mandate.
Uba said that Senator Orji Uzor Kalu is the ideal Senate President that Nigeria needs now, adding that he has nationalist vision with legislative capacity and competence and an unalloyed commitment to the APC.
He said that the group had x-rayed candidates who have eyes on the Senate President’s seat and noted that Senator Orji Uzor Kalu is the best among his peers in the areas of legislative experience and expertise, having sponsored over 25 bills that addresses the needs of the nation, moved motions for the security and peace of Nigeria.
“He has shown loyalty, consistency, capacity, character and competence, we therefore strongly appeal to the leadership of our great party, APC and the Senators-elect to consider the need for a stable Leadership of the National Assembly which will not be in variance with the vision of the Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu led government in delivering the democratic dividends to Nigerians who believe in the promise of hope and voted overwhelmingly for the APC”.
The APC support group maintained that Senator Orji Uzor Kalu’s consistency in his support to the party and his acceptability across the six geo- political zones points to character and dependability which are critical to the person who will occupy the office of the President of Senate.
The group futher appealed to the leadership of the ruling party to zone the position to South east on the basis of equity, fairness, unity, justice and stability of the peace of the nation.
File photo of President Buhari participates at the 54th Ordinary Session of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of the ECOWAS in Abuja on 22nd Dec 2018
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is set to honor President Muhammadu Buhari with an award of Hero of Democracy, in respect of his efforts at promoting democracy as a system of government in the sub-region.
The ECOWAS Chairman, Guinea Bissau’s Umaro Sissoco Embalo who made this known at a bilateral meeting with Buhari today, March 7, on the sidelines of the ongoing 5th United Nations Conference on Least Developed Countries in Doha, Qatar, said that President Buhari has done more than any other to support democratic governments in West Africa.
He acknowledged further that Nigerian leader has done exceptionally well, waging battles against the emergence of non-democratic regimes.
The ECOWAS Chairman said that for these reasons, President Buhari will have his name on the Roll of Honour in the community’s new headquarters building in Abuja, when it is completed, so that future generations of West African citizens will know about the greatness he achieved and to copy his laudable examples.
President Buhari accepted the proposition, saying that he always believed that democracy is the best pathway to bringing together, diverse people and a dependable vehicle for the achievement of national development.
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), has constituted a 13-member legal team to represent it at the Presidential Petition Tribunal over the February 25 Presidential election which its candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu won.
In a statement today, March 7, the party said that the team, being headed by Lateef Fagbemi, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), is made up of legal luminaries, with vast experience in election petition matters, constitutional law and litigation.
The statement said that the legal team consists of 12 SANs and the national legal adviser of the APC, Ahmed Usman El-Marzuq.
The full list of the members of the team is given thus:
1. Lateef Fagbemi, SAN (Lead Counsel)
2. Ahmed Usman El-Marzuq, Esq. (Life Bencher)
3. Sam Ologunorisa, SAN
4. Rotimi Oguneso, SAN
5. Olabisi Soyebo, SAN
6. Gboyega Oyewole, SAN
7. Muritala Abdulrasheed, SAN
8. Aliyu Omeiza Saiki, SAN
9. Tajudeen Oladoja, SAN
10. Pius Akubo, SAN
11. Oluseye Opasanya, SAN
12. Suraju Saida, SAN
13. Kazeem Adeniyi, SAN.
The statement said that the lead Counsel, Lateef Fagbemi is a renowned lawyer that had successfully handled various high-profile election matters and other landmark cases in the past.
The Presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the just concluded election, Atiku Abubakar, the national chairman of the PDP, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, members of the party’s National Working Committee (NWC), today, March 6, marched, in black dress, to the Headquarters of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Abuja in protest over the February 25 election.
Dr. Iyorchia Ayu presented the party’s protest letter to INEC, calling for the cancellation of the election in which the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Tinubu won.
In the protest letter, PDP called on INEC to sack Tinubu and conduct a credible election that would be acceptable to all.
“On behalf of the people of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the teeming members of the PDP, we present this protest letter to INEC, addressed to the Commission Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu.
“We do not accept the charades of what has been presented to Nigeria people as election and what has been declared.
“We, there call on INEC not only to cancel the election but to re-conduct a very credible election, not only to Nigerians but also the international community.”
The protest letter was received by the INEC National Commissioner and Chairman, Information and Voter Education Committee, Festus Okoye, who commended the party for a peaceful protest, promising to submit the letter to the appropriate authorities for necessary action.
“I have received this letter on behalf of the commission, if there are remedial issues to be dealt with, we are going to deal with those remedial issues. This commission is for the Nigeria people. Our allegiance is to the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
“This commission does not have allegiance to any political party or candidate, our allegiance is to the Federal Republic of Nigeria,” Okoye said.
INEC had declared Tinubu as the winner of the presidential poll after scoring 8,794,726 votes, the highest of all the candidates, thus meeting the first constitutional requirement to be declared the winner.
He also scored over 25 percent of the votes cast in 30 states, more than the 24 states constitutionally required.
The Acting Director in the Corporate Communications Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. AbdulMumin Isa has vowed that the Bank remains committed to its mandate of stimulating access to finance for the real sector of the economy.
He said that the apex Bank, in its determination to carry out its mandate, was able to ensure a total repayments on the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme (ABP) as at February 2023, to be N0.503 trillion, representing 52.39 per cent and that the balance of N0.119 trillion was not due for repayment.
Dr. AbdulMumin Isa, who spoke to news men today, March 6, on the performance of the ABP, said that the Bank has released the sum of N1.079 trillion, as of February 28, 2023, of which N0.960 trillion was due for repayment.
According to him, the CBN’s ABP has supported about 4.57 million smallholder farmers at the end-February, 2023, through cultivation of over 6.02 million hectares of 21 commodities across the country.
He listed the commodities as rice, wheat, cowpea, millet, maize, cotton, fish, soya bean, poultry, cassava, groundnut, ginger, sorghum, oil palm, cocoa, sesame, tomato, castor seed, yellow pepper, onions, and cattle/dairy.
Dr. Isa cited statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FOA), and said that the ABP has contributed significantly to the increased national output of focal commodities, with maize and rice peaking at 12.2 and 9.0 million metric tonnes in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
He said that the programme has also helped to improve the national average yield per hectare of these commodities, with productivity per hectare almost doubling within the eight years of the Programme’s implementation.
According to him, repayments under the ABP are made through cash or produce by the beneficiaries, saying that the outstanding due balance on loans is still under moratorium due to the COVID-19 forbearance granted to beneficiaries of the Bank’s interventions in March 2020 and extended to February 28, 2022.
“It is pertinent to note that the tenor of loans under the ABP is based on the commodity gestation period. For instance, loans granted to farmers cultivating some perennial crops could have up to seven-year tenor.”
Dr. Isa emphasized that the Bank’s interventions, with the core objective of catalyzing the economy’s productive base, have continued to support investments in capital assets in sectors with high-growth and employment-elastic potential.
“The Central Bank of Nigeria remains committed to its developmental mandate of stimulating access to finance for the real sector, particularly agriculture, as it continues to support the Federal Government’s drive for food security and economic growth. Accordingly, the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to welcome applications from eligible Nigerian farmers and firms under the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme.”
F founder of Tony Elumelu Foundation (TEF), Tony Elumelu has advised the National Population Commission (NPC) to conduct a census that will be seen and accepted by all Nigerians as credible and acceptable.
Elumelu, who spoke at a high-level partners’engagement to galvanize support for the 2023 population and housing census, in Abuja, said that Nigeria needs a credible exercise that is devoid of errors to put the nation into the right economic perspective.
The chief philanthropist emphasized that the outcome of the 2023 census must be acceptable and should not lead to rancour in the society.
“The last time a census was done in Nigeria was in 2006, and even then, it was recorded that there were 140 million Nigerians. It is projected that this 200 million-plus population will grow to over 400 million by 2050, which will make Nigeria the third most populous country in the world.
“The upcoming census is a significant milestone in Nigeria’s development as it provides an opportunity to provide accurate data, which will serve as a tool for policymakers, private sector actors and civil society organizations.
“The census will affect how we allocate resources in Nigeria and so many important decisions. It is pertinent that the process is credible and above fault. I, therefore, call on the NPC to conduct a census that meets the public acceptability criteria.”
We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies.
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), has constituted a 13-member legal team to represent it at the Presidential Petition Tribunal over the February 25 Presidential election which its candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu won.
Rigging Claims Don’t Add Up, By Mahmud Jega
A member of the British House of Lords, when told that money is difficult to come by these days, said he is nearly 90 years old but cannot remember any time in the past when money was easy to get. I have been watching Nigerian elections since 1979 and I cannot remember a time when those who lost the election did not allege rigging and intimidation. For a time, there was hope that President Goodluck Jonathan’s 2015 concession phone call could become the norm in Nigeria. It now looks like it was a one-off event. Instead, it was Godsday Orubebe’s 2015 attempt to storm INEC’s National Collation Centre that has endured, with Dino Melaye attempting a poor carbon copy in 2023.
The young men and women who are saying on social media that the 2023 election was full of rigging and intimidation, have no personal knowledge of the golden age of rigging and intimidation in Nigerian elections. In this election I saw no reports in the media of thugs snatching ballot boxes and stuffing them. I saw no reports of security agents cordoning off whole polling stations while ballot boxes were being stuffed. There was no story of soldiers scattering voters in any place. Where is the mother of all rigging, when Supreme Court ruled in 1983 that UPN’s Bisi Onabanjo got 1.2million votes, NPN’s Akin Omoboriowo got 500,000 votes but the returning officer added 1 behind the figure and it became N1.5million?
This year, the President did not declare the election a do or die. I saw no story of armed hooded security agents descending on a state, as in Ekiti in 2014. There was no story of an opposition governor’s plane denied landing rights at any airport. In 2023, we didn’t have a Police Commissioner Mbu denying an opposition party governor entry into his own Government House. Pray, where in Nigeria in 2023 did we have Police Commissioner Tahir Jidda denying Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe entry into Maiduguri and firing tear gas at Zik, even though Borno State Governor Muhammadu Goni stood beside him? Even the party primaries of last year lacked drama, because we saw nothing like the Babalawo who tried to enter the UPN state congress in Ibadan in 1983 with a live tortoise strapped to his waist.
Another youngster wrote on social media that “this generation of Nigerian politicians do not know how to concede, unlike the older generation.” Sorry sir, they actually copied it from the older generation. In 1979, as soon as election results started trickling in, we saw GNPP leader Waziri Ibrahim dashing around to see UPN leader Chief Awolowo and NPP leader Dr. Azikiwe. The three of them, minus PRP leader Aminu Kano who refused to join, appeared together before pressmen, rejected the election results and alleged rigging, even though it was an election conducted by a military government, not like now when APC controls the Federal Government [at least, it used to]. The scene was re-enacted last week when PDP and LP running mates held a joint press conference and tried to present a common front, a case of locking the stables after the horses have bolted.
Anyone who trusts such emergency political alliances has another thing coming. In 1979 the opposition parties presented us with a common front up until the Supreme Court upheld the election result. To our utmost surprise, just before Inauguration on October 1, 1979, NPN and NPP announced an accord where they shared legislative and executive posts between them. NPP got Deputy Senate President, House Speaker and several Cabinet posts, including Zik’s running mate Prof Ishaya Audu who became Foreign Minister, Mrs. Janet Akinrinade of Oyo and Paul Unongo of Benue. Who knows now if someone is negotiating under the table?
Our local and social media activists who are trying very hard to impress foreign election observers and the Western press by citing scattered incidents of election day problems knowing that White people are sticklers for procedure. They insist on correct procedure even if it produces an undesirable outcome. We Africans, who are wiser, usually walk back from the answer to the question. Our politicians’ measure of the credibility of an election is if they win, not whether or not the procedure was followed. If they don’t win, then the election is not credible.
The general African attitude to elections is that the outcome justifies the process. The credible outcome, in African eyes, is usually when the incumbent ruler or party is defeated. Hence, to most Africans, the best elections ever held in Africa were when Morgan Tsvangirai’s party defeated Robert Mugabe’s; when Adama Barrow defeated Yahaya Jammeh in Gambia; when Mohammed Morsi triumphed in Egypt against Hosni Mubarak’s premier; when Jerry Rawlings’ party was defeated in Ghana; when Macky Sall defeated Abdoulaye Wade in Senegal; when Wade himself earlier defeated Abdou Diouf; when Alassane Ouattara defeated Laurent Gbagbo in Ivory Coast; and more recently, when William Ruto triumphed in Kenya despite outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta’s support for Raila Odinga.
African style, let us walk backwards from the result to the credibility question. First, the voter turnout. There were 87 million voters with PVCs in 2023 election but only 24 million voted, or 27%. Now, the starting point of rigging elections is to take advantage of the number of registered voters.
Why leave 63 million blank names on the register if you really desire to rig up results? There is no doubt that the technological innovations adopted over the years greatly helped to clean up our elections. Up until 2007, those absent voters will simply have their votes cast for them by a coalition of party agents, election officials and security officers.
The winner of this election, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, got only 37% of the vote, down from the 56% that Buhari got in 2019. Now, while 2019 was a two-horse race between the APC and PDP candidates, 2023 was at least a four-horse race between APC, PDP, LP and NNPP candidates. It was the first time since 2007 that we had more than two major candidates in a presidential election and the first time since 1983 that we had up to four major candidates in such a race.
The top four candidates in this election got 37%, 29%, 25% and 6% respectively. This compares closely with 1979 when Shagari got 34%, Awo got 29%, Zik got 16%, Aminu Kano got 10.28 and Waziri Ibrahim got 10%. The top three runners up in this race got a combined 60% of the vote. That is impressive, but then, they only have themselves to blame that they did not present a united front before the election. They only tried to present a united front to contest the results. It is a case of locking the stables after the horses have bolted. Would they have made 60% of the vote if they had united behind a single candidate? Nobody will ever know the answer for certain.
Tinubu’s party went into this election controlling the Federal and 21 state governments. In the event, he won only 12 states outright. PDP’s Atiku Abubakar also won 12 states, LP’s Peter Obi won 12 states outright [FCT included] while NNPP’s Kwankwaso won outright in one state. So how did Tinubu win the race? Simple. The number of states that a candidate wins outright is important. Equally important is the number of states in which he came second. Also very important is, if he came second with only a narrow margin in most of them.
Tinubu won 12 states outright [Zamfara, Jigawa, Borno, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Ekiti, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo and Rivers]. He came second in 19 states [Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Katsina, Kano, Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe, Taraba, Nasarawa, Plateau, Adamawa, Osun, Lagos, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Edo, Imo and Ebonyi]. In many cases the margins of loss were very small, only 3,000 votes in Sokoto, 12,000 in Katsina and equally narrow margins in Osun and Lagos. Very important, Tinubu came second to Kwankwaso in Kano, second to Atiku in most of the states the latter won and second to Obi in Lagos, Ebonyi, Imo and Edo.
This was exactly how Alhaji Shehu Shagari won the presidency in 1979. He won outright in nine states out of 19 [Sokoto, Kaduna, Niger, Bauchi, Gongola, Benue, Kwara, Rivers and Cross River.] He won in Kaduna and Gongola even though his party lost the governorship elections there two weeks earlier, what in those days was called “the bandwagon effect.” Of the remaining ten states in Nigeria at the time, Shagari came second in 9 [Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Bendel, Anambra, Imo, Borno, Plateau and Kano]. Shagari came third only in Lagos, after Awo and Zik. Like Shagari, like Tinubu; you are victorious if your party is either first or second in almost every state.
Allegations that APC rigged the election also falls flat because it lost the biggest states, namely Lagos, Kaduna, Kano and Katsina, even though all of them have APC state governors, all of whom are staunchly loyal to Tinubu. In terms of vote banks, what is Imo, Edo or Adamawa to these states? Why should anyone go rigging elections in some small states when he could rig up figures in the biggest ones and win by a large margin? If they could help it, why should ten APC governors, APC National Chairman and Director General of the APC campaign suffer the embarrassment of failing to deliver their states?
Why should Tinubu himself suffer the embarrassment of failing to win outright in Lagos, long alleged to be his political fiefdom?
Allegations that APC rigged these polls do not hold the water of logic. But those making them still have the chance to prove them at the election tribunals. Onabanjo managed to prove rigging even in the olden days of analogue collation. It is easier to do so in this age of electronic collation, if indeed rigging took place.